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PV dual dependence: companies are counting on the government
Blindly expanding the industry into a cold winter before the "Economic Information Daily" reporters divided into multiple roads, spent several months, deep into the frontiers of the photovoltaic industry, contacted a number of domestic leaders of the first-line leading enterprises, and related to the relevant state ministries and commissions, research institutions experts In-depth discussions have been carried out to look at the "diseases" hidden in the photovoltaic industry. China's photovoltaic industry has grown from scratch, and the government-supported photovoltaic industry park has blossomed everywhere. Its production capacity has quickly accounted for more than 70% of the world's total. The world's top 10 PV module manufacturers have taken the top five in the US, and some PV companies listed in the US. Stocks have hit record highs, and the industry has become one of the most dynamic industries in China's private manufacturing industry. In 2007, China's solar PV production jumped to the top in the world, and continued to double in the five years to 2011. According to the statistics of the China Renewable Energy Society Photovoltaic Branch, in 2009, China's photovoltaic solar cell production was 4 GW (1 GW = 1000 MW): in 2010, the output reached 8 GW, accounting for 50% of the world's total production. Among them, 5 companies rank among the top 10 in the world: in 2011, China's PV module production accounted for nearly 80% of the world. According to the statistics of more than 160 enterprises affiliated to the Photovoltaic Industry Alliance under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the production capacity has reached 35 GW, and the total production capacity of national PV enterprises is above 40 GW, which is more than the total installed capacity of other countries in the world. In pursuit of profit, in recent years, many companies and capitals that have nothing to do with solar photovoltaic power generation have rushed. Some domestic listed companies with main business such as automobiles and feeds have entered the photovoltaic field in an inter-bank manner, and some small private capitals have followed suit. Even if you only invest millions of dollars, you can become a PV manufacturer by purchasing a ready-made process plan from abroad and assembling it by hand. According to statistics, in 2008, there were less than 100 PV companies in China. After several years of rapid development, it has expanded to more than 500. On the other hand, “flowering†everywhere is difficult to “result.†Since last year, since the counter-subsidy and anti-dumping trade lawsuits have been filed in many countries, such as Europe and the United States, the Chinese PV industry has seen a comprehensive start from the beginning. Signs of collapse, many early star companies are in trouble, the stock price has fallen to historical lows, may be acquired at any time, and some have already taken the pace of nationalization... Since 2011, with Europe In the development of the debt crisis, European countries such as Germany and Italy have lowered their subsidies for the photovoltaic industry. The demand for the European PV market, which accounted for more than 70% of the world's PV installed capacity and 80% of China's PV battery exports, has fallen sharply. Difficult, the huge capacity of the company can not be digested, can only compete to cut prices to grab the market, profits fell sharply. Shi Zhengrong, chairman of Wuxi Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. said that in 2011, Suntech’s shipments reached 2.1 GW, a year-on-year increase of 34%. It ranked first in the world for two consecutive years, but its main business income increased only 5 years yo. %, exports only increased by 4% year-on-year. The main reason is that overcapacity caused vicious competition in the market, resulting in a sharp drop in product prices. In the first quarter of this year, the average price of the component market dropped by 40% year-on-year. Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that PV production capacity is evolving from a short-term relative surplus to a long-term absolute surplus. The current global PV capacity is close to the critical point of long-term absolute excess. What is the reason for this clean energy industry, which has been fully optimistic in all aspects, has grown from small to large in just a few years, and has fallen from the peak? The imperatives of the company are all counting on the government. In 2000, Dr. Shi Zhengrong, who returned from overseas, came to Wuxi New District with a laptop computer and a business plan for photovoltaic cells. The market value of Suntech was as high as 10 billion US dollars. The value has been as high as several billion dollars. How is this miracle achieved? ... Dr. Shi Zhengrong often said: "Without the support of local governments, there is no success of Suntech today." The reporter learned that in order to support Suntech, the Wuxi Municipal Government can spare no effort. In order to ensure the settlement of the project, the local government of Wuxi has issued an administrative order, and must help Suntech’s first batch of 8 million US dollars in the initial stage of the project to be smoothly and timely. After the project was settled, Suntech received a nanny-style service. Not only did the various procedures go green, but the local government also coordinated to solve the financing problems. The insiders pointed out that the current crisis in China's photovoltaic industry is, on the surface, a result of blindly expanding production capacity of photovoltaic enterprises under the trend of high profits, but in-depth analysis will find that among them, the offside support of local governments also plays an important role in promoting and even playing a pivotal role. The role. For a long time, the photovoltaic industry has always had a contradiction between “the first chicken or the first egg†between the industry and the market. On the one hand, the cost of photovoltaic power generation is relatively high, and it cannot be marketized without government subsidies, and it will not cultivate a perfect photovoltaic industry. On the other hand, without a perfect photovoltaic industry, it is impossible to make technological progress and large-scale production year by year. To promote the cost reduction, and ultimately achieve the market access to parity online and other energy competition. This has caused countries to face a dilemma in the photovoltaic industry. Wang Jun, director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, introduced the “1000 Photovoltaic Roofing†plan by the German government in 1991, which pioneered the start of the PV market with government financial subsidies, and subsequently the European Union followed suit. At present, the EU countries have formed a clear top-level design of the photovoltaic industry, that is, to attract a large number of investors with high subsidy policies, and then reduce them year by year, encourage manufacturers in all aspects of the photovoltaic industry to reduce costs and achieve parity online as soon as possible. Wang Huixian, head of Jijie Solar Technology Co., Ltd., a photovoltaic company in Hebei Province, said that before 2007, the photovoltaic industry had a high profit. The government could recover the cost after investing in the enterprise for one year, and the political impulse and bank in the transformation and upgrading of the local government. Under the impulse of investment, preferential land policies and loan conditions flocked to PV companies, which played a role in fueling the situation. Many companies' asset-liability ratios increased significantly and blindly expanded. Many industry insiders pointed out that in recent years, among the local investment, the photovoltaic industry has been favored. One of the important reasons is that the photovoltaic industry has a large investment and a lot of labor, which can not only create GDP but also promote employment. More importantly, It is also closely related to the concepts of high technology and clean energy, and is in line with the policy requirements for the transformation of economic development mode. Attracted by these real benefits and concepts, many local governments have rushed to develop photovoltaics as a key industry to provide “offside†preferential policies for photovoltaic enterprises including land, loans, financing, etc. It looks like a high-tech product, but its production technology is highly integrated into the equipment, and it can build a production line with money. Especially the components are simple labor-intensive labor, and the entry threshold is very low.†Zhou Lang, Dean of the School of Solar Photovoltaics, Nanchang University “Many real estate developers, clothing companies, contractors and other top-ranking foreigners have become a photovoltaic entrepreneur.†The lucrative products are all dependent on overseas under the overall macro design and policy. By 2011, the EU has formed a total of 20 GI. Tiles, which account for 65% of the global PV module market demand. Investing in photovoltaic power plants in Europe and America has stable income and controllable risks. Under the stimulation of high profits, domestic PV module manufacturers began to “explore the fire†and blindly pursued the expansion of production capacity for export. In the development of the photovoltaic industry, China's "photovoltaic dependence" disease has become more serious, and the deformed shape of "two small and medium big" has gradually formed from the smooth industrial chain. “One small†means that there are few enterprises engaged in the production of upstream silicon raw materials in China, and the key production equipment has long relied on imports. Li Junfeng said that when the photovoltaic industry started, raw materials and equipment were 100% dependent on imports. Until now, foreign equipment has been the mainstream of polysilicon purification, ingot casting, slicing and battery manufacturing. The key links such as screen printing are still abroad. The equipment is under control and the accumulated import amount reaches 40 billion yuan. In terms of raw materials, Chinese PV companies are always at the low end in the global industrial chain division of labor. In addition, “one small†means that the domestic market share is too small, and the downstream PV products are over-reliant on foreign sales. Although China is the world's largest solar photovoltaic cell manufacturing base, corporate sales rely heavily on exports. Taking 2010 as an example, China's solar cell production reached 8 GW, while China's solar PV system installed capacity was only 0.5 GW in the same period. The rest were used for export, and the export ratio was as high as 94%. In 2011, China's overseas exports of photovoltaic products worth as much as 35.8 billion US dollars, of which the EU accounted for more than 70%, involving exports exceeding 20 billion US dollars. According to reports, China's PV downstream component companies are all piled up in the two mature markets of the European Union and the United States, but they are not willing to plough in India, Canada, South America and Southeast Asia. For example, Wuxi Suntech, Changzhou Tianhe, Suzhou Axis, and Hebei Yingli are the four largest PV companies in China. Even the most diversified market in Wuxi, Suntech, the dependence on the EU market is still as high as 60%. Hebei Yingli is as high as More than 70%. The "intermediate big" means that most of China's PV companies are crowded in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain of silicon wafers, batteries and components, relying on local political achievements and investment impulses. The overall scientific and technological content of the industry is not high, and sustainable development is seriously subject to control. Shi Zhengrong believes that "domestic photovoltaic equipment enterprises do not have the independent research and development capabilities to lead the process progress." The reporter learned that Jiangsu is known as the "largest PV province" in China, but only 2 of the large and small PV companies actually have R&D teams. % to 3%.