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He said that the world financial crisis was mainly caused by the excessive expansion of the virtual economy. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to several aspects: First, correctly understand the limitations of the virtual economy and do a solid job in the real economy; second, carefully analyze the current situation. The situation of the crisis; the third is to deal with the relationship between the scale of investment in fixed assets and industrial growth; the fourth is to do a good job of structural adjustment; the fifth is to focus on technological innovation in the crisis.
Lu Zheng said: "The crisis occurred because of the excessive innovation of finance and the relaxation of supervision, which formed a self-circulation and enlargement, and formed a bubble from the real economy." He said that the virtual economy does not follow the law of value, but according to its It is the expectation of the future to decide whether to invest. Therefore, the US rescue this time will eventually return to the revitalization of the US real economy.
Overcapacity is the cause of China's economic fluctuations The current slowdown in China's economic growth is mainly caused by overproduction of enterprises. Even without the impact of the US financial crisis, the Chinese economy is unlikely to continue to grow at the rate of 2002-2007. Lu Zheng said that China's current economic problems are the current overcapacity caused by the infinite expansion of production and insufficient effective demand, especially the overcapacity of industrial production, the imbalance of industrial structure, the inefficient allocation of production factors, and the unreasonable income distribution.
In the past few years, China has carried out large-scale investment in fixed assets, which have successively formed new production capacity, making the infinite expansion of production meet the shortage of effective domestic demand. In terms of population, China's total population increased by 4.2% in 2007 compared with 2000, and farmers' net income increased by 6% annually, that is, it did not double in ten years. The disposable income of urban residents has grown by an average of 8% per year, and it has not doubled in ten years. However, the company's capacity growth has more than doubled, which has led to insufficient domestic demand.
Responding to the crisis should focus on restructuring and innovation. Lu Zheng said: "As the profit rate of the real economy declines, a large amount of surplus capital will flock to the oil and food market that is most prone to speculation." He pointed out that the world financial crisis is deeper. The reason is that the innovation of productivity and scientific and technological progress itself does not produce enough technological achievements to support the birth of new industries.
In addition, structural adjustment should solve two contradictions: First, solve the balance problem, solve the coordination between production and demand, heavy industry and light industry, upstream and downstream, avoid serious excesses and serious shortages; second, we must further promote the profession. Division of labor, change the status of large, full, small and complete industrial organization.
He said that structural adjustment still needs to solve the problem of excess and shortage, but the focus of structural adjustment must be on improving industrial competitiveness and optimizing resource allocation. Especially when the financial crisis is fluctuating, we must make up our minds to eliminate those backward production capacity. At the same time, the basis for the appreciation of the renminbi should be based on structural upgrading, not entirely on foreign exchange reserves.
Lu Zheng said that the central government and local government finances account for only 4% of the total investment in fixed assets, and more than 96% are social capital. Therefore, in addition to 4 trillion yuan, how to stimulate and mobilize social capital investment is a more important issue. In terms of investment in fixed assets, it is necessary to reform the railway management system and allow social capital to enter the railway; to change the status of local provincial highway companies and promote social capital to the highway.
Do a good job in the real economy to deal with the financial crisis
"The skin does not exist, the hair is attached?" Lu Zheng, member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and deputy director of the Department of Economics, compares the real economy with the virtual economy.