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The recent rise in plastic prices is expected to be weak
[Jizhi Plastics News] Since August 25, driven by the sharp rebound in crude oil prices, the main contract of plastic futures 1601 has risen sharply, and the price has risen from a minimum of 8040 yuan / ton to a maximum of 8755 yuan / ton. It rose by 715 yuan / ton, and the cumulative increase reached 8.89%. However, the market outlook is constrained by imbalances in supply and demand, and the rebound in crude oil prices is highly restricted, which has made it difficult for plastic prices to continue to rise.
Recently, due to the dollar correction and the decline of US commercial crude oil inventories, international crude oil futures have risen sharply. Market rumors that OPEC expressed concern about the current crude oil price, indicating that OPEC can not squeeze shale oil in a way that lowers oil prices, and the imbalance between supply and demand of crude oil will exist for a long time.
According to industry analysts, OPEC was mainly established to prevent large fluctuations in crude oil prices. However, considering the current excess supply and demand of crude oil, the role of OPEC has been greatly weakened. Once OPEC unilaterally cuts crude oil, its market share is bound to be seized. If the market wants to rebalance the crude oil by reducing production, the only possibility is to reduce crude oil globally. In short, the imbalance between supply and demand of crude oil in the short term may not be solved. The possibility of OPEC's unilateral production cuts is very low. The future supply of crude oil will still be at 31 million barrels per day, and the price is difficult to change.
The industry believes that due to the impact of rising crude oil prices, the price of plastics will increase slightly in the near future. However, considering that the imbalance between supply and demand of crude oil is difficult to improve in the short term, and the fundamentals of plastics tend to be weak, the price of plastics still needs to rebound. treat. Therefore, it is difficult for plastic prices to break through the 60-day moving average and the strong pressure area around 8850 yuan/ton. The recent price increase may be weak.