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This is the topic of Professor Meng Qinghu, professor of the Department of Electronic Engineering at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, at the 3rd China Robotics Summit. It is also a topic of general concern in society. As is known to all, in China, factors such as the disappearance of demographic dividends, increased awareness of environmental protection, and increased production costs are making “machine substitution†an urgent need. At the same time, it is also an inevitable choice for China's industrial restructuring and industrial upgrading. So, large-scale machine substitution will bring unemployment?
The answer may be no. In fact, due to the flexibility, flexibility and working range of industrial robots, the proportion of existing industrial robots that can replace people's work is about 30-35%. Nearly 70% of industrial robots can't replace human work. At present, the automotive industry and the electronics industry use a large number of industrial robots to meet the accuracy and quality requirements of products.
In addition, conceptually, after the machine is replaced by a robot, the person is unemployed. The rise of machine substitution is itself the "fruit" of the demographic dividend, and naturally it cannot be attributed to the "cause" of unemployment. "Behind the fear of unemployment, it is actually the contradiction between the manpower structure and the job demand that emerged in the industrial transformation and upgrading," said the Secretary General of the World Robotics Congress.
On the one hand, nearly 8 million college students in China face employment pressure every year, and they are not willing to work as workers. On the other hand, the treatment of migrant workers has risen sharply in the past few years, which has greatly increased the cost of employment for enterprises. Labor quality and professional ability have not increased in proportion, and their professional skills can not meet the requirements of industrial upgrading and new technology development.
Qu Daokui, chairman of the China Robot Industry Alliance, said that the traditional advantages of Chinese companies are low-cost, labor-intensive, and the most need for machine substitution is technology, talent, and capital-intensive industries, with the competitive advantage of traditional Chinese industries. Gradually no longer exist, industrial transformation and upgrading will be accompanied by staff reconfiguration.
This will inevitably lead to some structural unemployment. The "Green Paper on Population and Labor" published not long ago pointed out that in the context of machine substitution, the human capital level and employment structure characteristics of migrant workers and other groups determine that they may inevitably suffer from the impact of industrial upgrading. There may even be a serious unemployment risk.
Xu Xiaolan believes that in response to machine substitution, there is an urgent need to improve the professional skills and qualities of employees. On the one hand, the employees who replaced the machines once again entered the classroom and re-employed; on the other hand, China is also in urgent need of cultivating a group of skilled workers who have the spirit of “artisan craftsmanship†and meet the requirements of the new era.
Professor Meng Qinghu mentioned in his speech that after comparing various indicators, human beings are completely superior to robots in terms of flexibility and intelligence. This means that people and robots are enormously complementary when doing the same thing. If human beings do what he is good at, and let the robot do what it is good at, the combination of the two forms a "human-machine synergy" will greatly improve production efficiency and quality.
Liu Jinchang, a researcher at the Advanced Manufacturing Division of the High-Tech Research and Development Center of the Ministry of Science and Technology, also pointed out that "substitution is the replacement of people from a harsh, monotonous, and repetitive environment, allowing robots to engage in related dangers or work that humans are unwilling to do."
In addition, large-scale machine substitutions are not suitable for all industries. Since the price can cover the cost, we can use the "black light factory" to produce Tesla cars, but the same model can not be copied to the clothing industry. In fact, due to the low unit price, style and demand of the finished product, in the clothing industry, the cost of replacing people with machines is not lower than that of employing people, or even higher than the cost of employing people.
In this context, enterprises must choose to build factories to manufacture clothing in places with low labor costs. On the southeast coast, low-end manufacturing, such as clothing and footwear, has moved to factories with low labor costs due to the inability to withstand rising labor costs, such as Vietnam or parts of South Africa.
What is even more worth mentioning is that the chairman of a robot company revealed: “There was once a robot carrying the exhibition, and more than 20 intention orders came at once. The employer’s boss said in the inquiries about the price of the machine and can be recovered in one year. The cost will be done, and the cost recovery in two years should be considered. If it is not changed in three years, the order will be completely ruined."
Wenzhou Yueqing, a business owner of home appliance accessories, also said that from the perspective of enterprise upgrades, it is difficult for small enterprises to invest more money in automation equipment and technology updates, not to mention the need for large capital investment projects such as machine substitution.
In view of this, machine substitution does not bring large-scale unemployment to China, but structural unemployment is hard to avoid. In my opinion, the essential reason for the substitution of machines is the upgrading and transformation of China's manufacturing industry. The upgrading and transformation of manufacturing industry is requiring China to abandon the current low-end, repetitive, processing-oriented manufacturing model and to the high-end manufacturing industry. Advance to the field, to the field of high profits and high technology content.
Large-scale machine substitution will really bring about structural unemployment?
Abstract "Is it really necessary to change people?" This is the topic of Professor Meng Qinghu, professor of the Department of Electrical Engineering at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, at the 3rd China Robot Summit. It is also a topic of general concern in society. As everyone knows, in China, the demographic dividend...
“Is it really necessary to change people?â€