Is gradually changing the world's energy **

We have been over-optimistic about the changes in the global energy system for some time. We must know that global GDP is as high as US$65 trillion, and the total amount of energy consumed is huge and the structure is complex.

Observing this huge energy system revolution requires a clear understanding of two things: First, the long-term effectiveness of the new technologies; and second, the scale. Such complicated changes in the energy structure cannot be completed overnight. At present, it seems that only some substantial changes may occur around 2030.

The transformation of energy structure mainly proceeds from three aspects: First, energy demand, mainly reflected in the improvement of energy efficiency. This has become a consensus and substantial progress on a global scale. As far as the United States is concerned, its current energy efficiency is twice that of the oil crisis, but this increase is not easily perceived because it is embedded in the development process.

The second is supply. In addition to new energy sources, there are many innovative developments in the conventional energy sector. In the Western Hemisphere, for example, the development of oil under salt in deep water in Brazil can make it a new oil country. The production of oil sands in Canada is comparable to that of Libya before the war. At present, Canada is the largest oil importer in the United States. In addition, the United States’ own oil production achieved a 10% increase in 2008. In the western part of Ohio and Pennsylvania, the origin of these petroleum history will return to the center of the oil stage.

The third is technology. The French scientist Carnot called the invention of the steam engine a "great blaze." It gave Britain a huge geopolitical advantage in the British and French struggles of the time. The impact of this ** has lasted more than two and a half centuries, and I believe it will continue. This is why I think it is important to be consistent with scientific research.

Climate change is a major issue in the energy and political fields. Europe has adopted many clear-cut and ambitious policies to address climate change, but the United States actually has many hidden climate change policies. The United States has a wide geographical area and diversified regional development, resulting in a complex interest structure. The United States has introduced many energy policies, but this is only a collection of policies. The United States does not lack energy policies. What is missing is a comprehensive and systematic energy policy theory.

In terms of nuclear energy, the Fukushima nuclear accident not only affected the world’s confidence in nuclear energy, but also affected the world’s confidence in the Japanese government’s decision-making and commitment to the development of nuclear power. Before the Fukushima nuclear accident, everyone discussed the revival of nuclear energy in the world. However, it now appears that countries have begun to differentiate their positions on the development of nuclear energy. It should be recognized that without nuclear energy, it will be difficult to truly achieve the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

A new round of energy competition has begun and more “green jobs” will appear in the future. However, we should also be based on a pragmatic approach and should not be overly optimistic about the dramatic changes in energy production in the short term. According to the current situation, 70 to 75 percent of the world’s energy consumption in the next 20 years will still come from oil, natural gas, and coal.

It is worth mentioning that there are many bubbles in the field of energy R&D and venture capital investment. Perhaps many currently unknown scientists may enjoy a great reputation in the future if he can persevere in his research and development.

A major feature of geopolitics in the 21st century world energy is "globalization of energy demand." In the past, energy demand was only a matter of developed countries, and now the growth of global energy demand is almost entirely from emerging market economies. For example, the Middle East is increasingly shifting its focus on expanding the oil energy market to the East, which also makes maintaining the stability of the Gulf region an interesting geopolitical issue. For example, does China have to participate in the security maintenance of important maritime channels in the Gulf region and the world?

China already has a solid domestic industrial base, and it is moving toward the world with increasingly strong national strength. China was still a net oil exporter before the early 1990s, but it is currently the world’s second-largest oil consumer and importer. China is firmly implementing a diversified energy supply strategy, such as trying to build oil and gas pipelines that bypass the Malacca Straits. At present, China and the Caspian region of Central Asia have also made great progress in energy trade.

However, if China is to become a true player in the international oil market, it must clearly understand the reality that at present, the output of overseas operations by all Chinese oil companies is still less than the output of a large international oil company.

The Arctic will become the main source of future global hydrocarbons and involve complex geopolitical issues. Russia, the United States, Canada, and Norway all have territorial claims in the Arctic, and they have overlapping places. For Russia, rich oil and natural gas resources have brought substantial income, but Russia cannot always rely heavily on oil and natural gas, and needs to look for the next generation of energy. This is why Russia is eager to develop the Arctic. However, Russia is also very clear that the development of the Arctic is not a task that can be accomplished by a single country and needs multinational cooperation. The current cooperation between Rosneft and Exxon Mobil is proof.

The turmoil that broke out in the Middle East this year is evolving into a struggle for power: who will control the army, who will control the government, and who will control oil?

The Middle East will also face three potential problems in the future: First, the unresolved employment problem of young people will cause continuous turmoil; Second, terrorism. Will Yemen become a failed country? You know, Yemen is located at the entrance and exit of the Red Sea. On the other side is Somalia, which is the place where oil is transported. The third is Iran’s nuclear program. The Iranian nuclear program will make new progress in the next year or two. This will lead to a nuclear race in the Middle East.

Whether the United States or the world, it should be seen that the energy revolution is really happening. The founder of the oil peak theory, King Hubbert, did not make any predictions about the development of US oil production and technology. Although traditional energy is still dominant, and the Middle East still occupies 60% of the world's traditional energy sources, it is undeniable that the types and sources of energy are increasing, such as Canada’s oil sands, U.S. shale gas, and French Guiana. The discovery of new resources in Ghana, this slow change will have significant significance for the development of the world. (The author is the Cambridge Energy Research Institute of the United States.** This article is based on the author's excerpt from an interview with Foreign Policy magazine. Wu Tian, ​​an assistant researcher at the First Financial and Economic Research Institute.)