Rail Guide,Gate Carriage Wheel Track,Suspended Gate Track,Gate Tracks Rail Guide Jiaxing Gates Hardware Products Co.,Ltd , https://www.jxgateshardware.com
Dry goods: Demystifying Tesla's latest battery lightweight technology!
Recently, Tesla's 100kWh model has passed the assessment of the EU certification body RDW. This means that the Model S/X 100D is coming soon! Its cruising range theoretical value will reach 613km (based on NEDC standard).
According to EU regulations, models sold in EU member states must be certified by their authorized agencies. RDW is a Dutch company commissioned by Tesla to obtain a license to sell in the EU. In this article, let's explore how this 100kWh is done.
Elon Musk once said that Tesla's battery life (electricity) is increasing at a rate of 5% per year. From the iterative situation of the current battery pack, this goal is basically achieved. In addition to the 60kWh as an entry-level configuration, 70kWh and 85kWh have been upgraded to 75kWh and 90kWh respectively.
Soon after, 100kWh and 120kWh battery packs will also enter the option list. Currently, 60kWh still exists as a é…ç½® version to promote Tesla's sales. The real story is 70kWh and 85kWh, how to increase the power of 5kWh each.
One thing is certain, that is, the battery pack structure has not changed during the battery pack increase. The number of internal battery modules has not changed. Let's take a brief look at the internal structure of the Tesla battery pack.
There are 14 battery packs inside 60kWh, each battery pack contains 384 batteries, a total of 5376 batteries; 85kWh consists of 16 battery packs, each battery pack contains 444 batteries, a total of 7102 batteries Core composition.
The 70kWh that was added later was actually a 75kWh battery pack, which was limited by software. The extra 5kWh was originally offered to the owner as an optional package worth $3,000. As long as the OTA software is updated, the 70D can be changed to 75D.
So the question is, how did the 75kWh battery pack come from? On this issue, Tesla officials did not make a technical explanation. According to the author's judgment, the 75kWh is actually a 85kWh battery pack, which is reduced by 2 battery packs. In the 85kWh battery, the capacity of each battery pack is 5.3kWh, and 14 such battery packs are 74.2kWh.
This is the relationship between 70kWh, 75kWh, and 85kWh. As for 60kWh, this is just a configuration to reduce the barrier to entry. So, how did 90kWh come from?
From 85kWh to 90kWh, 5kWh is added. Is there a battery pack added? In the 85 kWh battery pack structure, it is no longer possible to superimpose the battery pack. The possibility of ** is to replace the new battery. Of course, it still uses the 18650 model battery, but the chemical material has been adjusted to increase the energy density.
In this process, Tesla added a small amount of silicon to the graphite anode of the cell, which increased the energy density of the cell. The addition of silicon to the anode has been recognized as a way to increase energy density in the battery field. In order to avoid excessive stacking of the battery pack, the quality of the battery pack is too large, and Tesla can only focus on the development of high energy density batteries. However, for ternary lithium-ion batteries, it is far from simple to increase the energy density through silicon.
The basic principle is that after the silicon is added to the graphite anode, the absorption capacity of the anode for lithium ions is enhanced because the structure of the silicon atom can accommodate more lithium ions than the graphite. In a single charge and discharge cycle, the more lithium ions in the anode, the greater the energy density.
However, after fully absorbing lithium ions, the volume of silicon expands by 300%, which is much larger than the expansion rate of 7% after graphite absorbs lithium ions. This repeated volume change causes the solid state electrode to become "soft" and easily collapse. As a result, the cycle life of the battery is reduced.
Another factor is the formation of the SEI film of the lithium battery electrolyte due to the expansion/expansion characteristics of the silicon anode due to charge and discharge. This film is formed during the initial cycle of the lithium battery and has a protective effect on the anode material to prevent the material structure from collapsing.
For the above reasons, the use of silicon as the anode, although the energy density can be significantly improved, but also with side effects, eventually leading to shortened battery life. Therefore, Tesla's solution is to gradually add a small amount of silicon to the graphite anode to find a balance point between energy density and cycle life.
As we all know, the 18650 battery used by Tesla is produced by Panasonic. As the cooperation between the two sides deepens, Tesla is also developing new cylindrical batteries. After the Model 3 is officially put into production, the new 21700 battery will replace the 18650 and become a new battery.
The 21700 battery is still a ternary lithium battery and the cathode material is nickel cobalt lithium aluminate (NCA). This cylindrical ternary battery is the current power density** power battery solution. Compared with square-shaped batteries, such batteries have high energy density, but have poor stability and require better BMS (Battery Management System) support.
Tesla's earliest Roadster used Panasonic's NCR18650A battery with a rated voltage of 3.6V and a capacity of 3.1Ah. The previous 85kWh battery pack uses the NCR18650B battery with a rated voltage of 3.6V and a capacity of 3.1Ah.
The 90kWh battery model is not known, but it should not be directly supplied by Panasonic, but developed jointly by Tesla and Panasonic, specially designed for Tesla models. At present, among the 18650 batteries produced by Panasonic, the NCR18650G is a model with a capacity of **, reaching 3.6Ah. According to this calculation, 7102 batteries in the 85kWh battery pack are replaced by G-type batteries, which is exactly 90kWh.
Therefore, there is a possibility that in the 90kWh battery pack, the battery cell is of the NCR18650G type; and in the 85kWh battery pack, the battery cell is of the NCR18650B type. In short, in the case where the number of cells is constant (the battery pack structure is unchanged), the power of 90 kWh can be ensured only by increasing the capacity of a single cell to 3.6 Ah.
To achieve 100kWh, there are two options: one is to superimpose two battery packs, which can get 100kWh according to the capacity of 5.3kWh per battery pack; the second is to replace the batteries with higher energy density. The author believes that the latter is ** and is the most likely one.
Because 90kWh is based on the 85kWh battery pack structure. This structure has been finalized under the 18650 battery specification, and the cost of changing its design structure is very high. In fact, there is no more space in the battery pack to stack more battery packs.
If you increase the battery pack, not only the quality of the battery pack will increase, but also the cooling cycle system of the battery pack. Therefore, improving the capacity of the battery is the most economical and feasible solution.
Imagine that in a 100 kWh battery pack, the capacity of a single battery cell should be increased to 3.9 Ah without changing the battery pack structure, so that it is possible to achieve a capacity of 100 kWh. Therefore, the author suspects that Tesla has developed a 3.9Ah 18650 battery with Panasonic. This credit can only be attributed to the silicon in the anode.
The "smart" wave of the car in the next decade is worth looking forward to. The car will be transformed from electronic control technology to the deep integration of electronics, communication, software, materials and mechanical technology, and become the frontier of cross-industry innovation technology.
“Small, lightweight, intelligent, electric, and shared†will become the core keywords of the automotive industry in the next decade. As consumers become more mature and rational, and energy, transportation, safety and other issues become more and more significant, cars will eventually return to the essence of smart transportation: "lighter, smarter, safer" will be the future direction. The automobile industry will gradually move from closed to open, and will be led by mechanical and electronic control technology to the deep integration of electronics, communication, software, materials and mechanical technology. The automotive industry will become a frontier of innovative technologies across industries and disciplines, and will also stimulate more business model innovation.
We expect the market share of smart electric vehicles to exceed 50% by 2030. Among them, emerging car companies may account for half of the country; traditional car companies that have not seized the opportunity for change may become a foundry or even exit the market. In the next five years, technologies such as ADAS and smart driving, car networking, car chips, account numbers and operating systems are worthy of attention. Chinese car companies and entrepreneurial companies benefit from capital strength and engineer dividends, and are expected to undertake more global division of labor in the process of intelligence.
Electric: Reduce the threshold of building a car and start the prelude of the car's intelligent revolution. Electric vehicles have greatly simplified the structure of automobiles and the number of parts. The core powertrains (such as motors, batteries, and even electronic controls) can be purchased from third parties, thus swaying the system advantages and competitiveness of traditional car companies. Emerging technology-based auto companies have emerged rapidly and hold high-profile "smart" selling points. By 2018, smart cars powered by electric vehicles may once again change consumer perceptions of cars. The battery still accounts for 50% of the current cost of electric vehicles. In the future, technologies that help improve battery performance and efficiency of electric vehicles are worthy of attention, such as: ternary cathode materials, wet diaphragms, graphene conductive solvents, and light weight.
Intelligence: Future car owners battlefields from ADAS to driverless. ADAS is an important landing point for smart cars. Foreign giants such as Bosch and China are dominant. The gap between Chinese companies is relatively large. We expect China's ADAS market to reach 200 billion by 2020. With the rapid growth of the market, Chinese companies may seek breakthroughs in the field of post-installation ADAS and early warning ADAS. For listed companies and Chinese startups, the possible opportunities are: 1) automotive chips, 2) electronic brake mechanisms, 3) laser radar and millimeter wave radar hardware and algorithms, 4) camera-based and multi-sensor fusion Algorithms, etc.
Car networking: intelligent extension and expansion, the rapid development of post-installation car network forced the front loading. The pre-installed car network currently covers a relatively limited range of services, such as navigation and basic services, such as General Anjixing. In the future, the front-loading car network may further extend to the V2V and V2X fields, becoming an extension of the sensing mechanism of the ADAS system in special scenarios. Standards such as LET-V are worthy of attention. After the car network is growing rapidly, the industry chain continues to expand, and gradually form a navigation and entertainment-based financial insurance (UBI, etc.), used car service model, also used in automotive loans, car sharing and other fields. In the future, the post-installation car network is based on the "human" life service, and may gradually evolve into a pre-installed business with a vehicle operating system and O2O as a carrier.
Sharing: Business model innovation based on automotive intelligence. Internet of vehicles is the cornerstone of car sharing. Unmanned driving in the future may completely change the car sharing industry. Travel sharing (with drivers) is developing rapidly, vehicle tracking and dispatching algorithms affect customer experience, and capital forces have a greater impact on business models and industrial landscapes. Vehicle sharing (no driver) is based on the vehicle positioning/tracking technology. C2C mode (such as bump car rental, PP car rental, etc.) is beginning to emerge.
Capital will play a huge role. The primary market has opened up another round of technology investment boom; the secondary market advantage company is expected to integrate the industrial chain with the financing capability and the status of the listed company, and even form a closed-loop ecological environment. However, it should also be noted that the road to future automobile transformation will be calculated in units of 10 years, which will inevitably accompany the cyclical fluctuations and expected changes in the capital market. The Gartner curve also suggests valuation fluctuations that may result from differences in capital expectations and industrial progress rates. For companies that deploy advanced technologies such as smart cars, financing capabilities and cash flow management have become important competitive factors beyond technical strength.
The “smart†automotive sector deserves a long-term investment horizon. The “smart†wave of the car in the next decade is worth looking forward to. The car will be led by electronic control technology to the deep integration of electronics, communication, software, materials and mechanical technology, and become the frontier of cross-industry and multi-disciplinary innovation technology. Multi-business model innovation.
1, electric: reduce the threshold of building a car, open the prelude of the car intelligent revolution
Electric vehicles reduce the threshold of building cars and subvert the core competitiveness of traditional car companies in the "powertrain" field. Electric vehicles have greatly simplified the structure of automobiles and the number of parts. The core powertrains (such as motors, batteries, and even electronic controls) can be purchased from third parties, thus swaying the system advantages and competitiveness of traditional car companies. By 2018, smart cars powered by electric vehicles may once again change consumer perceptions of cars.
Electrification is the future direction of development. For individual consumers, high-end electric vehicles can provide strong power and push back, low-end electric vehicles can save on gasoline costs and reduce vehicle costs. For the country, electric vehicles facilitate centralized discharge treatment and improve efficiency.
Technologies that can help improve battery and electric vehicle performance are worthy of attention. The battery still accounts for 50% of the current electric vehicle cost. The problems include: 1) energy density increase and cost reduction, and 2) charging speed increase. The technical directions worthy of attention include: 1) ternary cathode material; 2) wet diaphragm; 3) graphene conductive solvent. In addition, miniaturization + weight reduction is also a key support for electrification, and carbon fiber and aluminum-magnesium alloys are worthy of attention.
New energy opens the smart prologue
In the era of electric vehicles, the original core competitiveness of vehicle manufacturers has been shaken, and intelligence will become a core competitiveness. The core competitiveness of traditional car companies in the "powertrain" field has been challenged, and new entrants have played "smart" cards, and cool screens and new technologies have become more attractive to consumers.
Tesla opened the prelude to the car intelligence war. Since the start of the booking, Model 3 has accumulated nearly 400,000 orders, and consumers around the world are looking forward to smart and cool black technology.
Electrification is the future development trend
Electric cars bring a driving experience. The acceleration performance of electric vehicles kills traditional fuel vehicles. ModelS P90D can achieve a speed of 2.8 seconds per 100 kilometers, setting a world record; BYD "Tang" and "Qin" can easily win the fuel super run. This is determined by the operating characteristics of the motor.
Energy conservation and emission reduction are the global development themes. Considering the efficiency of the entire industrial chain from fuel extraction to vehicle-driven Well-to-Wheel, pure electric vehicles are comparable to fuel vehicles, but still have lower energy consumption and emissions than gasoline vehicles.
China's oil dependence on foreign countries is high, and electrification is an inevitable choice. According to the statistics of China National Petroleum Corporation Economic and Technological Research Institute, China's current dependence on foreign oil is over 60%, and more than 70% of new oil consumption is car every year. In the long run, the development of fuel vehicles will aggravate the oil crisis in China, and electric vehicles will become an inevitable choice.
Policies and regulations accelerate the development of China's new energy automobile industry. In 2012, the State Council issued the “Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)â€, proposing that the average fuel consumption of passenger vehicles will fall to 6.9 liters/100 kilometers in 2015 and to 5.0 liters/100 kilometers by 2020. . "Made in China 2025" further proposes that the fuel consumption target for passenger cars in 2025 will drop to 4.0 liters/100 kilometers. Regulatory standards have forced passenger car companies to develop electric vehicles.
China's new energy auto industry took off quickly with policy support. According to statistics, in 2015, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 379,000 units, a four-fold increase over the same period last year. We believe that China's new energy automobile industry has moved toward technological progress under the support of policies. In 2016, China's new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 600,000 units, with a penetration rate of 2%; by 2030, new energy sales will reach 25 million units, with a penetration rate of 50%.
Future technological progress: power battery technology upgrade
New energy vehicles drive the relevant industrial chain. The market size is expected to be close to one trillion in 2020, and the power battery market is expected to reach 100 billion.
Power battery is the key link of new energy vehicles. The current industry penetration rate of new energy vehicles is still below 3%, and the high cost of batteries is one of the main reasons for the slow popularity. Pure electric vehicle battery costs account for nearly 50% of the total vehicle cost. The increase in battery energy density, cost reduction, and charging speed are important driving forces for the further popularization of new energy vehicles.
The energy density of the ternary cathode material battery is 15%-30% higher than that of the lithium iron phosphate battery, and will become the mainstream technical route for passenger car power batteries. The cost of cathode materials accounts for nearly 40% of lithium batteries, which is a key factor in determining battery performance. We expect that the market size of ternary cathode materials in 2020 is expected to exceed 30 billion. We expect sales of new energy vehicles to reach 600,000 units in 2016, bringing 10GWh demand for ternary material batteries.
Diaphragm is a key component of lithium-ion batteries, and wet-membrane technology will be further popularized. Benefiting from the increase in the penetration rate of ternary and high-end lithium iron phosphate batteries, it is expected that its demand in 2020 is expected to exceed 1.8 billion square meters, and benefit from the continuous gap between domestic supply and demand, product prices and profit margins are stable. The wet separator market is expected to exceed 5 billion in 2020.
Graphene or will be used in lithium ion batteries: conductive agents, electrode materials. Graphene is excellent in electrical conductivity and mechanical properties. Currently in the research and development period, it is estimated that the market space will reach 500 million in 2020.
Future technological progress: lightweight development
Lightweight can significantly improve the driving range, which is an inevitable choice for the development of electric vehicles. The weight of electric vehicles is reduced by 10%, and the corresponding cruising range can be increased by 5.5%. At a time when the energy density of the power battery cannot fully meet the requirements, lightweighting is an important means to improve the driving range. Minister Wan Gang also stressed again at the 2016 China Electric Vehicles 100-member Forum: “Lightweight†is one of the directions for the development of electric vehicles in China.
There are many lightweight materials for automobiles: high-strength steel, glass fiber, aluminum alloy, magnesium alloy, carbon fiber, etc. Aluminum alloys are widely used and carbon fiber is the future direction. The technology of aluminum alloy used in automobile lightweighting is relatively mature and has reached the level of mass production: Tesla Model S adopts all-aluminum body; Chery Jaguar Land Rover's all-aluminum factory has been completed and put into production; the aluminum alloy factory of the car and home has also been settled. Changzhou. Carbon fiber materials have received extensive attention due to their outstanding weight-reducing performance and specific strength. However, due to their high cost, only a few models are used: BMW i3, the first model of the Great Wall Huaguan K50.
2. Intelligence: the main battlefield of the future car, from ADAS to driverless
Smart cars will reshape the core competitiveness of car companies. In the gasoline engine era, the powertrain composed of engine and gearbox is the core competitiveness of traditional car companies. For large passenger car companies, the engine often adopts the practice of InHouse within the group; new entrants cannot purchase suitable high-performance engines and can only accumulate through self-development. However, the development cycle of a good engine often takes more than ten years; once the quality of the engine is approved, it may cause huge damage to the brand of the car. Therefore, the engine has become a barrier and core competitiveness of traditional vehicle manufacturers.
In the era of electric vehicles, intelligence will become the core competitiveness of car companies. Electric vehicles have greatly simplified the structure of automobiles and the number of parts. The core powertrains (such as motors, batteries, and even electronic controls) can be purchased from third parties, thus swaying the system advantages and competitiveness of traditional car companies. Newly entered car manufacturers often use “intelligent†as a selling point to attract younger consumers with cool cutting-edge technology. In the next 10-20 years, automotive products and their industrial chains will face tremendous changes and challenges. Traditional car companies have to re-enter the battle to accelerate the development of smart applications to meet the challenges of new entrants.
Future car owners battlefields from ADAS to driverless. ADAS is an important landing point for smart cars. Foreign giants such as Bosch and China are dominant. The gap between Chinese companies is relatively large. We expect China's ADAS market to reach 200 billion by 2020. With the rapid growth of the market, Chinese companies may seek breakthroughs in the field of post-installation ADAS and early warning ADAS. For listed companies and Chinese startups, the possible opportunities are: 1) automotive chips, 2) electronic brake mechanisms, 3) laser radar and millimeter wave radar hardware and algorithms, 4) camera-based and multi-sensor fusion Algorithms, etc.
ADAS: the grounding carrier for smart driving
We are currently in the early stage of assisted driving and have a long distance from thorough driverless driving. The American Society of Automotive Engineering SAE divides automatic driving into 0 to 5 levels. At present, L1 and L2 technologies are relatively mature, and L3 and L4 technologies are about to be mass-produced (Tesla has entered the 3-level automatic driving stage in advance). Thorough L5 unmanned driving refers to full-section, all-weather, fully automatic driving without manual intervention. The car can complete acceleration, braking, steering and other actions autonomously. It may take at least ten years to reach the industrialization stage.
Intelligent driving uses technology as the core driving force to create closed-loop control of perception, decision and execution. At present, the core technology of ADAS is mainly in the hands of foreign companies, including Bosch, China, Delphi, and Denso. The dividends of engineers accumulated in China for many years reflect that a large number of entrepreneurial companies have emerged, and local engineers and returnees have jointly promoted technological progress. However, considering the factors such as regulations, standards, company size and risk resistance capabilities, OEMs still have concerns about large-scale procurement of entrepreneurial ADAS products. Chinese companies may seek breakthroughs in the post-installation of ADAS and early warning ADAS.
Smart driving is also a three-tier pyramid supply chain pattern. 1) OEM and technology-based manufacturers at the top; 2) ADAS suppliers; 3) Underlying component suppliers.
Market space: trillions of unmanned, billions of ADAS, billions of devices. Global car sales growth slowed, but overall sales still exceeded 80 million. In the Chinese market, the industry sales volume reached 24.6 million in 2015, driving the relevant industrial chain to exceed 2.5 trillion. The ADAS system is expected to be popular first. It is expected that the penetration rate is expected to exceed 30% in 2020, and the market size is close to 200 billion. At the same time, demand for related component industries such as radar, camera and HUD (head-up display) in the upstream of the industrial chain is expected to grow rapidly, and it is expected to reach 10 billion in 2020.
Depending on the function, ADAS can be divided into early warning and execution classes. In the case of an emergency, the early warning type ADAS only issues a warning signal, and the driver decides how to operate; while the executive type ADAS can independently determine the decision and control the vehicle to achieve acceleration, braking, steering and other actions to avoid collision.
Foreign auto parts giants maintain a dominant position in the ADAS field. Including the mainland, Delphi, Denso, Autoliv, Bosch and so on.
Entrepreneurial companies have emerged in large numbers, and listed companies also hope to enter the ADAS field by means of equity participation and acquisition of startups. Entrepreneurial companies in the ADAS field have emerged rapidly through the power of capital and the engineers' dividends accumulated over the years in China. We believe that only local entrepreneurial models that have a solid grasp of core technologies, strong market expansion capabilities (factory vehicle channels), excellent financing capabilities, and a well-managed and balanced management team are likely to win. Winning the final victory in the ADAS Entrepreneurship Competition is no easy task.