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This week, the domestic urea market has steadily declined. The actual transaction price in the north has fallen below 1,600 yuan (t price, the same below). In the absence of a well-supported market, there was still a fall in August.
At present, China has entered the off-season period of agricultural fertilizer, and the demand for local agricultural products has been wiped out. The main flow of urea is the industrial market, a small amount of replenishment by dealers, and exports to Hong Kong. In the week before this, the mainstream domestic urea factory price was maintained at 1650 to 1750 yuan, and the overall operating rate of the industry was about 70%. Although the company's quotation surface is stable, the actual transaction of urea is close to the export ex-factory price. It is reported that the recent transaction price of the northern urea market has fallen below 1,600 yuan.
Although at the beginning of this month, it was reported that Shanxi plans to push the new policy of anthracite insured prices. Then, due to the rebound in the price of steel in July, the recent coal market is also positive. Following the recovery of coke prices, the upstream coal market also experienced price increases. Recently, many companies in Shandong and Hebei, including Jizhong Energy and Yanzhou Coal, have raised their coal prices. The actual increase rate is more than 10 to 20 yuan. The rebound in coal prices means that the coal market is really recovering, or it is only a short-term behavior, which has yet to be verified. Therefore, in the short term, its role in the urea market is very limited.
Despite the weak domestic demand for urea and export disruption, the current urea price has fallen below the cost of some production companies, but the rate of decline in the industry's operating rate is far less than expected. According to an employee of the company, the urea produced is currently consuming the company’s earnings in the first half of the year. The reason why the company still maintains full production at a loss is mainly because once the company takes the initiative to stop, it will be affected by the market's continuing downturn and may cause future problems. There is no way to resume production for months, and the payment of wages by workers will become a big problem. So now companies can only fight to see who can not afford to first stop production.
According to the current status of the domestic industry, domestic urea prices should also fall in August, which will further reduce the industry's operating rate. At the end of August or early September, the compound fertilizer plant began to purchase raw materials for autumn fertilizer, and the urea market may recover slightly.
Internationally, after a brief rebound in the international urea market, prices have fallen again. At present, the eastern European urea FOB price is around US$320. With the continuous implementation of tenders in various countries, China's urea export volume is also increasing, but in contrast, the FOB price is going down.