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The small-scale enterprises in the photovoltaic industry are now shutting down, and the idiots can make money.
Since 2011, the global PV module price has fallen by more than 40%. The photovoltaic industry has passed the winter: small enterprises are now shutting down the tide. "The era when fools can make money has passed." Morning Post reporter Li Yuequn Since 2011, the global PV module price has fallen by more than 40%. Under the pressure of cost, China's large and medium-sized PV manufacturers collectively lost money, and second- and third-tier enterprises have stopped production. Where will the future PV market go? The CEO (Chief Executive Officer) of the world's fifth largest component manufacturer, Artes Sunshine Power Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Artes"), said in an interview with the Morning Post reporter that the global PV market will remain a small year in the next two years. At the same time, the market will further concentrate on large factories. Moreover, unlike the situation in which a large number of small and medium-sized component manufacturers returned after the 2008 financial crisis, Xiao Xiaoyu said that most of these enterprises will be eliminated forever through this round of large losses. China is the world's largest producer of photovoltaic cells and components, accounting for half of the global PV market. Leading companies include Suntech Power (NYSE: STP), Jingao (Nasdaq: JASO), Yingli (NYSE: YGE) and Artes (Nasdaq: CSIQ) and so on. The semi-annual report shows that China's listed PV companies in the US have almost lost money collectively. Among them, Suntech Power lost US$260 million, LDK (NYSE: LDK) lost US$88 million, and China Light and Power (Nasdaq: CSUN) lost US$17 million. Hanwha New Energy (Nasdaq: HSOL) lost $11 million. "Double-counter lawsuits are untenable." In the case of weak PV demand in Europe and the suspension of production in the upstream upstream wafer companies, China's PV module manufacturers are facing a worse situation - the United States has danced "anti-dumping and countervailing" (below Called "double reverse") big stick. According to Reuters, seven solar manufacturers in the United States jointly launched a federal trade lawsuit against Chinese companies on October 19, accusing Chinese solar companies of "dumping" solar products in the US and global markets, and demanding US imports from China. Solar products are subject to 100% anti-dumping and countervailing duties. In response to the “double opposition†in the United States, Suntech’s CEO Shi Zhengrong previously told the media: “Several companies are preparing. We have hired very good lawyers, and our company has organized a team and has a very professional consultation. The division, together to actively respond." In the case of internal and external difficulties, the photovoltaic giant Suntech Power, LDK LDK was even reported to file for bankruptcy, Suntech's share price is terrible, from the peak of 90 dollars in 2008 all the way to the current more than 2 dollars, The decline was about 97%. For the "double-reverse" requirements of some US manufacturers, Xiao Xiaoyu said, "These contents have exceeded the scope of resolving trade disputes in my opinion. It has reached the point of black and white, full of anti-China." In this allegation The above-mentioned seven US PV companies said that in the US market, the price of solar modules dropped by 40% to 50% because Chinese manufacturers accepted a large amount of government subsidies and drastically lowered the price of US PV companies. "This thing is a bit of a joke. The first price cut is the lack of market demand. This is because the policies of European and American countries have changed, and overseas project financing has become difficult due to US debt and European debt." Xiao Xiaoyu said. Xiao Xiaoying said that the prices of various materials in the photovoltaic industry are declining, which is also one of the reasons. At the beginning of 2010, the price of polysilicon reached more than 100 US dollars per kilogram, which is equivalent to one watt of battery components. The cost of polysilicon is 60-70 cents. The component price at the beginning of the year is about $1.70. "Who is the world's largest polysilicon producer? Hemlock in the United States, it makes a lot of money." Xiao Xiaoyu said, "Now, the price of polysilicon has dropped to more than 30 US dollars a kilogram, equivalent to one watt of solar modules, polysilicon cost reduction It is less than 20 cents. At present, the price of polysilicon components is about 1.1 US dollars a watt. If you calculate the ratio, you know that polysilicon is the big price cut, and you don't know how much bigger than the components. In fact, the primary factor of component price decline It is certainly not China's processing process. This is a clear fact." In fact, in the context of global integration, China and the United States have strong complementarities in the field of photovoltaics. According to informed sources, US upstream companies and downstream companies have recently protested the “double-reverse†requirements of the seven US solar manufacturing companies. The relevant person in charge of another large-scale photovoltaic enterprise in China told the Morning Post reporter that "double opposition" is untenable. Dumping means that the price in foreign countries is much lower than the price in China. The situation in China is that the domestic price is low. Foreign prices are high. In addition, in the field of photovoltaics, Sino-US trade relations are US net exports. In 2010, for example, in the entire photovoltaic field, including upstream silicon materials and manufacturing equipment, the United States exported a net export of 1.88 billion US dollars to China. "If 'double', I am afraid that American manufacturers themselves do not agree." In the global industry division of labor, Xiao Xiaoyu said that the United States has great advantages in the manufacture of raw materials related to chemicals. “Hemlock such as polysilicon, such as EVA for photovoltaic packaging, has technical advantages and price advantages.†In addition, in the field of power electronics represented by inverters and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, the United States is due to China’s PV module companies. The rise has benefited a lot. Xiao Xiaoying said that in comparison, the biggest advantage of Chinese companies lies in the manufacturing and processing of the middle section. Of course, China's polysilicon is now available. In other words, China's advantage is polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, components, just in the middle of processing. "In my opinion, the entire solar industry, several major countries, the United States, China, Japan, Germany, is basically balanced. I have not seen which country is particularly cheap, and which country is particularly disadvantaged." Xiao Xiaoyu said. "In the next two years will continue to be small," according to international IT consultancy IHS iSuppli recently released research report, the year 2011, the world PV market installed capacity is expected to increase by 20% (year on year), compared with 2010 by 153% of The growth rate dropped sharply. At the same time, due to the turmoil in the market, the price has plummeted, and the solar cell production industry has overcapacity. This year's industry revenue may only increase by 3.7%. "This year's industry situation, Artes is expected. In the September-October last year, we have formed this view internally." Xiao Xiaoying said, "We introduce some domestic banks that cooperate with us. I also said that in 2011-2012, the whole industry will go down some." According to Xiao Xiaoying, in fact, from September to October last year, there have been many industry analysis, including investment bank Morgan Stanley. Optimistic about the 2011 market. "These reports are always there, but it depends on whether the management of the company is willing to listen, read, or write. You are willing to believe in the splendid scenery of flowers, or are willing to believe that this industry will be a protracted war and need to be quiet. The mood to deal with? This is your choice.†Since 2010 is a big year of photovoltaics, the entire photovoltaic installation has increased by more than 100%, not only the first-line PV module companies have significantly expanded, many small and medium-sized enterprises also claim to be this year’s The capacity target is 500MW or even 1GW. The relevant person in charge of another large-scale photovoltaic enterprise in China told the Morning Post reporter that in 2010, it was too hot, and the technology was worse, and the enterprises with higher costs could make money. Everyone went to the photovoltaic industry. In this regard, Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, also said that there is no problem in the market, but it continues to grow, but the industry has a problem. "The explosive growth of the industry has the result of an explosive crisis. In 2010, all PV manufacturers started production of horsepower, but this year Germany and Italy reduced their policy support for PV, so panic appeared. According to the second quarter of this year, Suntech’s current assets are $5.434 billion, while its liabilities are $3.774 billion, of which short-term loans are $1.66 billion. LDK’s total assets at the end of the second quarter of this year were $7.056 billion, while the company’s total debt was $4.127 billion. The debt was higher than other large PV companies. In addition, the company’s short-term debt was approximately $2.214 billion. . Xiao Xiaolan admitted that some of the situation this year was unexpected. For example, the European debt, the outbreak of the US debt crisis, the Japanese earthquake. The main impact of European debt and US debt is that banks are increasing their currency holdings and preparing for accruals. In this case, it is more difficult to finance PV power plant projects. In Europe and the United States, PV power plant projects usually have strong financial attributes. “The situation of the solar industry is now similar to that of the entire Chinese export industry. Each export industry faces great challenges. Customers are overseas, and the European and American economies have not recovered. So this is a common problem. This is from a global The decline in shipping capacity and freight rates can be seen.†Xiao Xiaoying said that as far as next year, these fundamentals will not have too fundamental changes, so this year and next year will still be a small year. "Our cash in the bank is generally between 600 million and 700 million US dollars. There is no convertible bond that has expired, and there are no large-scale infrastructure projects that cannot be stopped. Therefore, it is very easy and has a good mentality." Xiao Xiaoying also revealed that Artes' component shipments this year will reach 1.2 to 1.3 GW (1 GW = 1000 MW, 1 MW = 1000 KW), which will increase by more than 50% compared to last year's 800 MW. “This time it’s dead, it’s not alive.†EnergyTrend’s report said that as prices continue to fall, demand is still not improving. Most large manufacturers are expanding their estuaries. In addition to extending payment terms, they are currently assisting downstream by means of financial support. Development, and thus increase shipments, so the market challenges faced by small and medium-sized manufacturers will become more severe. In addition to their own cost pressures, in the downstream buyer market, they cannot compete with large manufacturers with more funds. Therefore, short-term operations Most of them have to keep cash in hand, and to reduce the inventory to spend this cold winter. In this context, the market even appeared rumors that Suntech Power and LDK LDK filed for bankruptcy protection. Some insiders told the Morning Post reporter that even if it is not true, the above news will not be groundless, and the tight capital chain is an indisputable fact. The above market pressure is reflected in China, the world's largest PV module manufacturing country, and a large number of second- and third-tier companies have stopped production. Xiao Xiaoyu said, "In my opinion, China's second- and third-tier PV companies are more likely to stop production. The bankruptcy has not yet appeared, because bankruptcy means legal bankruptcy and liquidation. It is normal to stop production, just like climbing a mountain can't climb. Then stop." Many PV companies in China are half-baked. Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) CEO Gao Jifan once said that at present, no matter whether it is a real estate enterprise, or a foreign trade, chemical, food, or agricultural company, they are rushing to capture the photovoltaic industry chain. If investment in various backgrounds enters the photovoltaic industry, it may not only negatively affect the supply and demand pattern of the industry, but also have a negative effect on resource use efficiency. “It is necessary to remind everyone that speculation and short-sightedness will not only bring about the expected economic returns, but also affect the quality of the development of the entire industry, and even deviate from the sustainable value of the solar industry.†With the arrival of the integration tide, The industry is concentrating on big factories. According to the data provided by Artes, although the price of components is steadily decreasing, the shipments of its components are rising every quarter. “We were 245MW in the first quarter, 287MW in the second quarter, and estimated to be between 350-360MW in the third quarter. This shows that the market share is shifting to large enterprises.†Xiao Xiaoyu said. For the current difficult market situation, Xiao Xiaoyu said that the concept of stable operation will continue and the investment in scientific research will be strengthened. "Our research investment is more than 10 million US dollars, and we have also received some results. For example, the world's first three-phase AC solar module and inverter combination was developed by us." The current situation is similar to the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, it was also the case that SMEs stopped production and exited, and large manufacturers continued to grow in the case of falling profit margins. However, after the financial crisis, those small and medium-sized component companies that have gone out are making a comeback, and the spring breeze is born again. For this phenomenon, Xiao Xiaoyu said that it is difficult to reproduce. "After entering this round of 2011, I am afraid that many companies will never come back. Because the solar industry is becoming more and more mature, large enterprises will occupy a larger market share, leaving little place for small enterprises, global trend. This will be the case.†Xiao Xiaoying said frankly that it is unlikely to keep the profit unchanged in the context of oversupply in the entire industry. "Everything is contradictory, and only the entire industry's profit margins have problems, and the industry will be integrated. Even the era when idiots can make money is gone, isn't it good?"