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(Reporter Zhong Jingjing) According to the current pricing mechanism, today (May 9) the window period for the increase in domestic refined oil prices will be officially opened. Many oil product analysts interviewed by reporters yesterday believe that if the international oil price remains at the current low level in the next week, the rate of change of the three places will not rule out falling below 4%, which means that the market may “hide†the oil price increase.
International oil price plummeted
International crude oil prices plummeted on the 5th due to news of rising US dollars, reduced demand and possible increase in production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Oil prices in the New York and London markets both fell more than 8%. Light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange plummeted $9.17 to close at $99.80 a barrel, down 8.39%. This is the first time that New York oil prices have fallen below $100 a barrel since the beginning of March this year. New York oil prices fell by 14.7% last week.
Affected by this, one of the indicators of domestic oil price adjustment, that is, the rate of change in international oil prices has also begun to decline. According to the monitoring of Xiwang Energy, on May 3, the weighted average price change rate of crude oil in the three places reached 7.01% of the highest adjustment period of this round. On the 4th, the head turned down to 6.99%, and on the 5th it was 6.97%.
Does not rule out that the oil price change rate returns to within 4%
Liao Kaijun, an analyst at CBI, said that since the domestic oil price was raised on April 7, international oil prices have been rising for most of the time, and the short-term decline has little effect on the decline of the rate of change. But he also said that if the Brent crude oil price stays below 110 US dollars in the next week (Brent crude oil closes at 110.80 US dollars per barrel on the 5th), the rate of change of the three places does not rule out that it will return to the level of less than 4%. .
For the future oil price trend, many analysts believe that factors such as the appreciation of the US dollar will lead to a short-term bearish oil price, but in the long run, oil prices are still on the rise.
"It is difficult to say how the international oil price will change in the coming week. However, based on previous experience and consideration of domestic inflation, the domestic oil price increase is likely to continue to be delayed," said Wang Jintao of Zhongyu Information.
That is to say, if the government continues to postpone the oil price increase time, and at this time the international oil price remains relatively low, the conditions for the upward adjustment of domestic refined oil prices will no longer be met.
â– Questioning
Why is it difficult to downgrade?
According to the mainland's refined oil pricing mechanism, when the international oil price changes by 4% for 22 consecutive working days, the domestic refined oil price can be adjusted. Liao Kaixuan said that the current rate of change in the three places has risen to more than 6%. Even if the international oil price declines next week is more severe, it is only likely to slip to within 4%. To achieve a negative rate of change, and to exceed 4%, it is very difficult, and international oil prices must continue and fall sharply. (Zhong Jingjing)
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Taiwan's oil prices are down today
Taiwan’s CNPC disclosed on its website yesterday that starting from the early morning of May 9, Taiwan’s gasoline and diesel prices will be lowered by NT$0.6 per liter. The company pointed out that as the international crude oil price fell, the oil price fell by 4.41% according to the formula. The price of gasoline and diesel was lowered by NT$0.6 per liter. After the adjustment, the retail price of unleaded gasoline on the 95th was NT$32.6, and the retail price of unleaded gasoline on the 98th was NT$34.1, which was converted into RMB 7.4 per liter and 7.74 yuan per liter.
Liao Kaixuan said that Taiwan's pricing mechanism is adjusted once a week and is mainly adjusted based on Dubai and Brent oil prices. The characteristics of the one-week adjustment are closer to the international oil price. When the international oil price falls sharply in the short term, the refined oil price can also be lowered rapidly. However, when the international oil price rises, the refined oil price rises rapidly. At the end of last year, the National Development and Reform Commission had said that it would adjust the pricing mechanism of refined oil products, and later said that the timing was unsuitable and unsuccessful.
The refined oil price adjustment window opens domestic oil prices today or will not increase
If international oil prices fall in the coming week, domestic oil prices may not rise