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These eye-catching performances are considered by the industry to be a sign of industry recovery. Among them, automotive, construction machinery, machine tools and mechanical basics are considered by the industry to be the fastest growing industry in the sub-sector. The first venture capital is most optimistic about the construction machinery sub-industry. Due to the low valuation of construction machinery, the repair of the valuation will bring high returns. Key stocks recommend companies with smaller equity and greater growth potential, such as Xingma Automobile, Anhui Heli and Zoomlion.
The industry boom has reached a record high. In the first two months of this year, the domestic machinery industry completed an industrial output value of 1.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.5%. The growth rate has reached the highest level in recent years, and the industry boom has reached a record high. The first venture securities analyst said that although the export value of the machinery industry in January and February has not recovered to the same level in 2008, the year-on-year growth rate of exports has turned sharply. Since December 2009, the monthly growth rate of export value has been rising. This information indicates that the overseas demand of the machinery industry has recovered.
Concerns about the “overheating†of investment caused by the rapid growth of investment, although many institutions predict that CPI and PPI will approach or continue to surpass the high level in February in the second quarter, but industry analysts of Guolian Securities said, “This will not It affects the overall warming trend of the machinery industry. Because the state's macro-control is more concerned about real estate, it will not affect the infrastructure investment that has a greater impact on the machinery industry."
The price of steel, which constitutes a large proportion of the cost of the machinery industry, is also an important factor affecting the gross profit margin of the industry. In 2010, steel prices continued to rise, but Jiang Meng Securities analyst Wei Meng believes that it will not lead to a decline in the industry's profit margin. The most direct reason is that overcapacity last year, machinery companies in the low-end establishment of raw material inventory to resist steel price fluctuations. Guo Qiang, the first venture securities analyst, believes that the acceleration of the increase in income in the machinery industry has led to a smaller gross profit margin due to the rise in steel prices. Great Wall Securities believes that the rise in steel prices is a definite event, but it is recommended to temporarily avoid low-margin products and related enterprises that are greatly affected by raw material prices.
Does the valuation fix bring 50% high yield?
According to the data from the China Construction Machinery Association, the machinery sub-sectors achieved good growth in January-February 2010, and their output value increased by more than 22%, of which the construction machinery industry grew by 51.9%. The above-mentioned three companies that have predicted the first-quarter results belong to the engineering machinery sub-industry. According to industry analysts of Guolian Securities, the explosive growth of the three companies' first-quarter results is due to the lower base of the previous year and the financial crisis. After the recovery of domestic fixed asset investment. All three are leading enterprises in the industry, and they are white horse stocks in the industry, with long-term investment value. At the same time, due to the completion rate of domestic projects under construction in 2009, only 46%, the first venture securities analysts believe that the current investment is still in a state of rapid expansion, domestic fixed asset investment will maintain rapid growth and continue to drive demand for construction machinery.
As the government's efforts to crack down on real estate developers will directly lead to an increase in real estate starts, the growth rate of real estate investment in January and February this year has returned to a high of 30%. On the other hand, government-led investment has not weakened, and central government investment still has a 7.4% growth this year. Together with the regional economic development plan vigorously promoted by the state, it is also the main driving force for investment growth. The construction machinery industry will be the most beneficial sector in the machinery industry.
In view of the flat performance of the mechanical sector in the first quarter, GF Securities analyst Qiu Shiliang believes that the first-quarter results will bring rebound opportunities, and the construction machinery will rebound by about 15% in April. The first venture securities analyst also said that the construction machinery industry is expected to carry out valuation repairs driven by the quarterly sharp increase in earnings, and this repair can bring about 20%-50% high returns, so the construction machinery industry is given “Recommended†investment rating, and in the key recommended stocks, relatively optimistic about the company with smaller equity and greater growth potential, focusing on the recommendation of Xingma Automobile, Anhui Heli and Zoomlion. GF Securities is also optimistic about the forklift industry leader Anhui Heli, as well as Xuzhou Heavy Industry, Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion and Xiagong shares with catalyst events.
The mechanical industry boom will bring 50% of the revenue
On April 14, the first-quarter performance forecast of the three companies in the machinery industry attracted everyone's attention. Zoomlion announced that its first-quarter performance increased by 100%-150%; XGMA previously announced that its net profit in the first quarter increased more than 10 times year-on-year; Sany Group, which is the main force of Sany Heavy Industry, increased its sales revenue by 150% in the first quarter. the above.