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A typical version of an overhead garage door used in the past would have been built as a one-piece panel.The panel was mounted on each side with unequal parallelogram style hinge lifting mechanism. Newer versions of overhead garage doors are now generally built from several panels hinged together that roll along a system of tracks guided by rollers. The door is balanced by either a torsion spring system or a pair of extension springs.A remote controlled motorized mechanism for opening garage doors adds convenience, safety, and security
• Aluminum garage doors are low-cost, light, rust-proof, and feature low-maintenance. They are prone to denting because aluminum is not strong and they are energy-inefficient since aluminum is a highly conductivematerial.
• Fiberglass and vinyl garage doors are composite units, combining a steel core behind a fiberglass or vinyl skin. They have also polyurethane insulated base sections, or other type of foam insulation. These premium doors can match steel garage doors, and be a realistic imitation of wood (namely fiberglass units), but they may be more expensive than steel units.
• Steel doors have become common and are available in a variety of sizes and styles, provide strength and security, are cost-competitive, and may have optional insulating value. Extra strength is available with two or three layers of galvanized steel with a low gauge number (23-24 gauge steel panels).
• Wood garage doors offer aesthetic appeal, but they are high-maintenance and may be expensive. Low-priced wood garage doors may warp and break easily.
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So, what is the new normal and what are its main features? How should we treat the new normal correctly? How to adapt to the new normal? The newspaper launched a series of three special reports on the "new normal and normal heart", in order to answer these questions for the readers and relevant parties.
--editor
"This time, I am afraid I can't go back!"
Pan Jiancheng, deputy director of the China National Economic Statistics Monitoring Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed to an economic growth curve on the computer.
This undulating curve shows that in the past 30 years of China's reform and opening up, the GDP growth rate has only three consecutive 2-3 years less than 8%: the first is 1979-1981, the second is 1989-1990, the first Three times were from 1998 to 1999. These three declines were mainly caused by external short-term factors, and each time they returned to the high-speed growth track.
This time, the fourth time is emerging: in 2012 and 2013, China’s GDP grew by 7.7%, the expected target for 2014 was 7.5%, and the first half was 7.4%. "This is not the downside of the cycle of the boom cycle, but the fundamental shift in the stage of economic growth. The Chinese economy may have to bid farewell to the high speed of the past." Pan Jiancheng said.
This change in the Chinese economy is closely related to a term called the “new normalâ€.
New normal, new feature
In essence, it is entering a high-efficiency, low-cost, sustainable medium- and high-speed growth stage.
What is the "new normal"? Literally, "new" is "different from the old"; "normal" is the state that happens from time to time. The new normal is a different, relatively stable state. This is a trend-oriented and irreversible development, which means that the Chinese economy has entered a new phase that is different from the high-speed growth period of the past 30 years.
Most experts believe that the new normal has four main characteristics:
- Medium and high speed.
"From the perspective of speed, the economic growth rate shifts from the high-speed growth of about 10% in the past to 7%-8% of the medium-high speed growth is the most basic feature of the new normal," said Wang Yiming, deputy secretary-general of the National Development and Reform Commission.
Looking around the world, when a country or region has experienced a period of rapid growth, there will be a phenomenon of “shifting†in growth: from 1950 to 1972, Japan’s GDP grew at an average annual rate of 9.7%, falling back from 1973 to 1990. To 4.26%, from 1991 to 2012, it fell to 0.86%; from 1961 to 1996, Korea's GDP grew at an average annual rate of 8.02%, from 1997 to 2012, only 4.07%; from 1952 to 1994. During the period, China's Taiwan's GDP grew at an average annual rate of 8.62%, and was reduced to 4.15% during the period 1995-2013.
"In many countries, the economic growth rate is directly switched from the 'high speed block' of 8% or more to the 'medium speed block' of about 4%, and the Chinese economy is expected to run a section of 7%-8% of the 'mid-speed block'. Time, Fan Jianping, chief economist of the National Information Center, analyzed that this is because China is a big country with a very uneven development. Each economic unit can continue to exert its strength and endlessly, resulting in huge and lasting development energy. "For example, when the service industry rises in the eastern region, the exiting manufacturing industry will not disappear, but will be transferred to the western region to promote the rapid growth of the western economy."
- Excellent structure.
From a structural perspective, under the new normal, the economic structure has undergone comprehensive and profound changes, and it has been continuously optimized and upgraded.
In terms of industrial structure, the tertiary industry has gradually become the mainstay of the industry.
In 2013, China's tertiary industry (services) added value accounted for 46.1% of GDP, surpassing the secondary industry for the first time; in the first half of this year, this proportion climbed to 46.6%. "The service industries in the United States and other developed countries have accounted for more than 80% of GDP. Under the new normal, the rising proportion of China's service industry will be a long-term trend." Wang Yiming said.
In terms of demand structure, consumer demand has gradually become the main body of demand.
In 2012, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth exceeded investment for the first time since 2006. From the data of the first half of this year, the contribution rate of final consumption to GDP growth reached 54.4%, investment was 48.5%, and exports were negative 2.9%.
In terms of urban and rural regional structure, the gap between urban and rural areas will gradually narrow.
At the end of 2011, the proportion of urban population in China reached 51.27%, and the number exceeded the rural population for the first time. With the implementation of the national new urbanization strategy, the urbanization speed will continue to accelerate, and the urban-rural dual structure will gradually break. The regional gap will also gradually narrow.
In terms of income distribution structure, the proportion of residents' income increased, and more shared reform and development results.
Over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China's GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 9.8%, and the state's fiscal revenue has grown at an average annual rate of 14.6%. The per capita disposable income of urban residents and the per capita net income of rural residents have grown at an average annual rate of only 7.4% and 7.5%. Under the new normal, this situation will change. Credit Suisse’s 2011 report predicts that China’s wage income will grow at an average annual rate of 19% over the next five years, exceeding GDP growth.
In these structural changes, advanced productivity has been continuously generated and expanded, and backward productivity has been shrinking and withdrawing. A series of new growth points have emerged, and some industries have paid a heavy price for overcapacity.
--new momentum.
From a dynamic perspective, under the new normal, China's economy will shift from factor-driven and investment-driven to innovation-driven.
From 1998 to 2008, the annual average growth rate of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 35.6%, and fell to 12.2% in 2013, and only 5.8% from January to May this year. “The continued hardship of the manufacturing industry shows that as the prices of labor, resources and land rise, the economic development mode driven by low factor costs has been difficult to sustain in the past, and the development momentum must be transferred to technological innovation.†Zhao Jinping, Minister of Economic Research, said.
- More challenges.
From the perspective of risk, new challenges are faced in the new normal, and some uncertain risks are dominant.
The property market risk has become the focus of social attention. In the first half of this year, the sales area of ​​commercial housing in the country fell by 6% year-on-year, and sales fell by 6.7%. As of the end of July, more than half of the 46 cities that have purchased more than half of the cities have relaxed their purchases, compared with the hot weather in the past. The property market is a bit cold.
Since the beginning of this year, China's economic operation has continued to be in a reasonable range, but potential risks such as property market risks, local debt risks, and financial risks have gradually surfaced. These risk factors are interrelated, and sometimes a single point outbreak may also cause a chain reaction.
"It is not difficult to see that these characteristics of China's current economic new normal are essentially the stage of high-speed growth of economic development in the past, and enter the stage of high-efficiency, low-cost and sustainable medium- and high-speed growth." Wang Yiming said.
New normal, new factor
China’s economy “can’t do it†and “can’t stand it†grows like the past
When it comes to the cause of the new normal, one has to mention an economic concept - potential growth rate.
The potential growth rate is the economic growth rate that a country (or region) can achieve under a certain period of time when resources are optimally allocated and fully utilized. The potential growth rate is the growth rate under ideal conditions, and the GDP growth rate tends to fluctuate reasonably around the potential growth rate.
In the future, the decline in potential growth rate in China will become an inevitable trend.
This is because the potential growth rate is mainly determined by factors such as labor input, capital investment, and total factor productivity. From the perspective of labor input, in 2012, China’s 15-59-year-old working-age population showed an absolute decline for the first time. Experts predict that from 2010 to 2020, the working-age population will decrease by more than 29 million, which means that the whole society’s labor input will increase. Will gradually slow down. From the perspective of capital investment, the other side of the reduction of the working-age population is the increase in the dependent population and the increase in the maintenance expenditure. In the past, China’s population burden was light, and the high savings rate could be maintained, resulting in high investment. In the future, as the savings rate declines, it is available. Capital growth in investment will also slow down. And the total factor productivity representing efficiency is also difficult to increase significantly.
The decline in potential growth rate is an indisputable fact. Moreover, when an economy grows up, the total amount and base become larger. For every percentage point of GDP growth, its absolute value is much larger than in the past, so maintain the "perpetual motion" type. Long-term high-speed growth is impossible. Although China's GDP growth rate was only 7.7% last year, the GDP growth has been equivalent to the total GDP of 1994 and the total GDP of Turkey ranked 17th in the world.
By clarifying the potential growth rate, we understand why the new normal is born –
From the perspective of speed, due to the decline in potential growth rate and the pressure on resources and the environment, the Chinese economy “can’t do it†and “can’t stand it†will grow at a high speed like the past, and will inevitably shift back.
From the structural level, with the decline in the supply of production factors such as capital and land, the constraints on resources and environment will be strengthened, and the proportion of industries that consume more capital, land, energy, and pollution will decline, and less dependent on capital. The services such as land, land and other low-cost service industries will enter the fast lane of development, which will lead to the optimization of industrial structure.
Due to rising labor costs such as labor and resources, export competitiveness will be weakened. As the working-age population decreases and the savings rate decreases, the investment capacity will also decrease. As the income level of residents and social security improve, consumer demand will continue to be faster. Growth, which leads to the optimization of the demand structure.
“When the eastern land is scarce and the labor force is scarce, the related industries will be transferred to the central and western regions, eventually achieving regional coordinated development and optimizing regional structure,†Fan Jianping said. The speeding up of urbanization and the massification of a large number of agricultural transfer populations will help narrow the urban-rural gap and optimize the urban-rural structure.
With the reduction of labor supply, laborers are increasingly becoming “scarce goods†in the job market. In the economic structure dominated by the service industry, human resources are more important. These factors will promote the improvement of labor wages and the optimization of income distribution structure. .
From a dynamic perspective, in the past, the low price of production factors has become an important driving force for the rapid operation of China's “world factoryâ€. Today, the prices of these factors have undergone qualitative changes, forcing the Chinese economy to turn to innovation.
From a risk perspective, the risk explicitness is not a problem in the economy itself, but because as the economic growth slows down, many of the risks that were originally concealed during the high-speed growth period are beginning to be exposed.
For example, the downward pressure on the economy and the conference have weakened people's investment confidence. The accumulated property bubble and risk in the past have been highlighted. Under the expectation of the property market, real estate companies will suspend the purchase of new land, leading to local financial resources with land finance as an important source. The local debt risk will appear; while the real estate market is sluggish, the bank's related loans will bury hidden dangers of financial risks.
New normal, new landscape
The new normal is conducive to adequate employment, balanced income, improved social security, stable growth, stable prices, and improved quality.
"I want to know the new normal, the days of the ordinary people have been so good, can you be more comfortable than before?", Shanghai retired employee Zhang Wenjin said frankly.
What makes Zhang Wenjin happy is that the new normal will help improve people's livelihood:
- Employment will be more adequate. The service industry's ability to absorb employment is higher than that of the manufacturing industry. In 2012, the secondary industry absorbed about 980 jobs per 100 million yuan of GDP, while the tertiary industry could reach 1,200. Under the new normal, the proportion of service industry will increase, the total GDP will increase, and the employment situation will also improve significantly.
- The income will be more balanced. With full employment, the income of workers will be guaranteed. On the other hand, under the new normal, to increase consumption, we should increase the income of residents, especially the income of low-income people with higher marginal propensity to consume, and the income distribution will gradually become more reasonable.
- Social security will be more perfect. Under the new normal, to eliminate the worries of household consumption, we should carefully weave the world's largest social security network.
The new normal will also benefit economic development:
- Growth will be more stable. Under the “old normalâ€, economic growth relies more on investment and exports. Export demand is subject to frequent changes in the external environment, and investment demand will also fluctuate with overheating and cold in the economic cycle. Under the new normal, economic growth that is more dependent on consumption will be relatively stable, and the amplitude of cyclical fluctuations will be significantly reduced.
- Prices will be more stable. One of the consequences of steady economic growth is that prices are relatively stable. For example, prices rose by only 2.6% in 2012 and 2013, and only 2.3% in the first half of this year.
- Quality will be improved. Under the new normal, with the strengthening of resources and environment constraints and the transformation of China's economy into innovation, the quality and efficiency of economic growth will become the higher goals pursued by enterprises and society.
New normal, new scenery. Generally speaking, the impact of the new normal on China's economic and social development is positive and positive. It is conducive to the accelerated transformation of China's economic development mode, crossing the "middle income trap" and continuing to maintain medium- and high-speed growth for a long period of time.
Extended reading
How to change the Japanese and Korean economy
After the Second World War, Japan adopted a catch-up and unbalanced development strategy under the conditions of insufficient domestic resources and a narrow domestic market. It formulated and implemented specific industrial policies at different times to drive the take-off of the entire national economy with the priority development of leading industries. The "non-equilibrium development" strategy and the "trade-based" strategy constitute the two "wheels" of the "catch-up" economic development model. The two complement each other and cooperate closely to become a prominent feature of Japan's economic development path and model after the war.
From 1950 to 1972, Japan ushered in a period of rapid post-war growth, during which the average annual growth rate of GDP reached 9.7%. In 1968, Japan’s economic strength surpassed that of Germany, becoming the second largest economic power after the United States, creating a world-recognized “economic miracleâ€. At the same time, Japan has realized the modernization of production methods, industrial structure, management and product quality.
Subsequently, affected by the oil crisis and the decline in domestic labor supply, Japan experienced the first slowdown shift before and after 1973. By 1973-1990, Japan’s economic growth rate fell to an average of 4.26% per year, compared with the previous speed reduction. More than half of it; before and after 1991, the real estate bubble burst and hit the Japanese economy. From 1991 to 2012, the economic growth rate further fell to an average of only 0.86%.
After World War II, in order to get rid of poverty, South Korea formulated and implemented an economic development plan, and made use of the historic opportunities brought about by industrial upgrading in western developed countries to formulate an export-oriented export-oriented economic development strategy. From 1961 to 1996, South Korea ushered in a period of rapid economic growth, with an average annual GDP growth rate of 8.02%.
Around 1997, affected by the Asian financial crisis and the high debt ratio of domestic enterprises, several large companies such as Hanbao Steel and Kia Motors went bankrupt, the Korean economy suffered heavy losses, and the economic growth rate dropped significantly. During the period 1997-2012 The South Korean economy grew at an average annual rate of 4.07%, which was nearly half of the previous high-speed period.
People's Daily talks about the new normal of the economy: China can't stand the high growth like the past
Abstract In May of this year, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized during the inspection in Henan that China's development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities. We must enhance our confidence, proceed from the current stage of China's economic development, adapt to the new normal, and maintain a strategically normal mindset. With the economic data of the first half of the year...
In May of this year, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized during the inspection in Henan that China's development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities. We must enhance our confidence, proceed from the current stage of China's economic development, adapt to the new normal, and maintain a strategically normal state of mind. With the successive disclosure of economic data in the first half of the year, people have a more real understanding and feelings about the new normal.