Futures Trading: What is the Technical Analysis Method in Futures Trading?

The so-called technical analysis method refers to a method of analyzing and predicting the direction of price changes according to the market's own activities, that is, the supply and demand of futures contracts in the market. This method is not based on the supply of goods and demand and the various factors behind it to predict the price trend, but based on changes in the price itself, that is, through the purchase and sale of futures contracts to analyze and predict the price trend.

The basic point of view of technical analysis is that the study of how price changes can understand the direction of future market price changes more than the study of why prices change, and the phenomenon shown by the futures market itself is sufficient to provide information for future market price movements. Therefore, as long as the statistical data generated by the market itself is analyzed, such as price, transaction volume and position (in the city contract, also known as the pending benefit), meaningful conclusions about the price trend can be obtained.

Technical analysts believe that the past market behavior will appear repeatedly. Therefore, based on past experience, studying the current pattern of market behavior can provide some inspiration for future price movements. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously record the past and current price changes in various ways, find some patterns of price changes, and then refer to past examples to determine the trend of a certain price, and then take action. .

The main tool for technical analysis is the chart. Charts depicting past prices by various forms, the most commonly used charts are: daily (weekly, monthly) line graphs of the highest, lowest and closing prices; point graphs; moving average graphs.

1) Line drawings. This graph shows the price on the vertical axis and time on the horizontal axis. According to the different units of time, the line drawings can be divided into: daily line drawings, weekly line drawings, monthly line drawings. If you take the daily bar chart as an example, at the end of the daily trade, a vertical line is drawn directly above the day's line on the horizontal axis. The top of the line indicates the highest price point of the day, while the bottom line indicates the lowest price of the day. The market price is represented by a horizontal line extending to the right. This completes the production of the daily line drawing of the day. After making a line drawing of a certain period of time, it is necessary to analyze and determine what type of existing image it is based on past experience, and to judge the trend of further changes in price according to the structure of this type of structure.

2) Point graph. The line drawing reflects the transaction's highest price, lowest price, and closing price, but it does not reflect the detailed process of the transaction, and can't see the specific price changes, and the point graph can make up for its deficiencies. The point graph is usually made of squared paper, and the vertical axis is the price. Here, a square represents a price level. That is, the price change is not represented by coordinate points, but is represented by small squares. The horizontal axis does not indicate time, but it shows that the price column changes repeatedly over time. The so-called points are the units of price changes that are worth deciding before the tabulation. If the price rises by one unit per fluctuation, place an X in the corresponding grid and a few Xs in a few units. For every unit drop in price, place a zero in the corresponding square, and drop a few units to fill in a few zeros.

3) Moving average map. The vertical axis of the moving average graph indicates the price, and the horizontal axis indicates the flood period. Here, the price of the vertical axis is the average of the closing prices of a fixed length of time (which may be three days, four days, seven days, etc.) from the current back. The reason for adopting the moving average chart is that although most minor fluctuations in daily transactions are only minor episodes in an important trend, if these small fluctuations are ignored, the major trends and major price changes will be easily overlooked. Therefore, when analyzing prices, apply the average method to focus on the trend of price changes.

4) Trading volume and open interest. Trading volume refers to the total number of contracts that a commodity purchases or sells every month (or monthly) in the futures market. To avoid double counting, only the buyer or the seller is accounted for when calculating the transaction volume. Whenever a transaction is completed, Turn 70 to increase the amount of one hand. When analyzing price changes, combined with trading volume, it helps to understand the trend of prices. If the price declines, the transaction volume continues to increase, which often means that the price will continue to fall; and when the price rises, the trading volume will continue to increase, which often means that prices will continue to rise, this is known as the market.

5) Open interest is a statistical term for futures trading. It refers to the number of futures contracts that have been traded but have not been closed or completed. As with trading volume, only one side is counted, not the sale and purchase total. The combination of open interest and price analysis can better help us understand the market's activities and trends. If the price rises in the future when the volume is increased, there will be new purchases and new buyers will increase, indicating that the price will increase. If the open interest is reduced, the price will also fall, which means that the price will continue to fall. If the open interest increases and the price decreases, this indicates that the seller is highly motivated and it is estimated that the price will fall. If the open interest is reduced, the price rises instead, indicating that the price may rise for some time.

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