Expert: Coal prices will remain stable at low levels in the first quarter of this year

Since the beginning of this year, the momentum of large-scale coal enterprises has been “satisfactory”, coal prices have increased, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude. In this regard, industry experts believe that due to multiple factors, supply is loose, lack of demand will be accompanied by coal market this year. It is estimated that in the first quarter, the coal price of the 5,500 kcal market will remain at a low level of around 500 yuan/ton.

Wang Yun, an expert on Qinhuangdao coal network, pointed out that since July last year, the country has adopted a number of coal relief policies, coal prices have rebounded, but looking forward to this year's coal market, imported coal, nuclear power, hydropower, UHV will fully impact the traditional North coal The South Movement, coupled with the tightening of environmental protection, the situation is not optimistic.

It is worth noting that first, with the increase in hydropower and nuclear power installed capacity this year, the consumption of coal will be reduced by 40 million tons. Second, due to the implementation of the Interim Measures for the Quality Management of Commodity Coal, the sales of some high-sulfur coals in Shanxi may be weak. Continuation; Third, the new capacity of ports such as Jingtang Port will obviously exceed the increase in downstream demand, and the inventory pressure will increase; Fourth, the momentum of coal import may rebound, further reducing the price of domestic coal transactions.

Wang Yun expects that in January this year, despite the peak season of coal use, there will be no fundamental changes in supply and demand. In early February, southern industrial enterprises stopped production and holiday, and the electricity consumption dropped sharply. The most demanding period of coal demand in the year is coming. After the Spring Festival, the coal consumption season will decrease, and the daily consumption of thermal power plants in coastal areas will decrease. As we enter March, the weather in the south will warm up, the rain will increase, and hydropower will play a role. The coal market will continue to be in the buyer's market.

On the other hand, policies such as restricted production and insurance prices, control of imports, and the relevant departments of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Energy Bureau, the Coal Supervision Bureau, and the Coal Industry Association, etc., coal prices are expected to remain stable this year, that is, the use of coal off-season, coal prices are not falling. It will be great. Wang Yun expects that in the first quarter of this year, the coal price of the 5,500 kcal market will remain at a low level of around 500 yuan / ton.

It is understood that on January 21, the latest average price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in the Bohai Sea area closed at 518 yuan / ton.

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