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Winter wheat area pays attention to drought and cold, and southern crops should strengthen field management
Since the sowing of winter wheat and rapeseed this year, most of the main producing areas have good light and heat conditions, and the bottom is sufficient, which is conducive to crop seedling emergence and seedling growth. After winter, the northern winter wheat has sufficient cold-resistant exercise and normal wintering period, but strong cooling makes part of the growth. The growth of weak winter wheat and rapeseed was affected. In North China, Huanghuai, Jianghuai and other places, precipitation has continued to decrease since October, and drought has occurred in some areas, which is not conducive to the normal growth of winter wheat and rapeseed. In addition, staged overcast and heavy rainfall and strong precipitation weather occur in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and parts of the southwest. The soil is too wet, which has a certain impact on the autumn sowing schedule and crop growth.
It is predicted that the temperature in winter is slightly lower than that in normal years, and the change of cold and warm is large. It is unfavorable for winter wheat and winter rape growth, and some areas may suffer from freezing damage. In North China, Huanghuai and other places, precipitation is less, and winter winter wheat is safer. influential. In the spring of next year, the temperature in most parts of the country is high, which is conducive to the growth and development of winter wheat and rapeseed; however, spring drought may occur in some areas, which will affect the formation of winter wheat and rapeseed.
First, winter wheat, agro-meteorological conditions analysis before winter oilseed rape
At present, winter wheat has stopped growing into the wintering period in the northwestern part of China, North China, and Huanghuai. The winter wheat in the southeastern part of the northwestern part, the western part of Huanghuai, the Jianghuai, Jianghan and the southwestern part of the country is in the tillering stage, and the southwestern part has been partially jointed. Most of the rapeseed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the southwestern region are in the fifth true leaf to transplanting period, and the southwestern part of the region enters the opening to the bud stage.
1. Most of the autumn sowing area has sufficient light and heat, which is conducive to the growth of winter wheat and rapeseed. In winter, there is a strong cooling, and the growth of winter wheat and rapeseed is weak
(1) The light and heat conditions in the autumn sowing area are good, which is conducive to the growth of winter wheat and rapeseed
Since September, most of the ≥0°C accumulated temperature in the autumn sowing area is 50-250°C more than normal, and the number of sunshine hours has been more than since October. The light and heat are sufficient, which is conducive to the growth and tillering of winter wheat seedlings, and the transplanting of rapeseed The road is smooth.
After winter, the temperature in most parts of northern winter wheat area decreased steadily, and winter wheat was more fully resistant to cold. Winter wheat in Xinjiang, eastern part of northwestern China, north China, and eastern Huanghuai normally entered the wintering period from late November to mid-December. Most of Xinjiang, the eastern part of the northwest, the south of North China, the southern part of Huanghuai, the Jianghuai, Jianghan and the southwestern part of the winter wheat planting until the mid-December, the accumulated temperature reached the standard of wheat before the winter (450 ~ 600 ° C), prolonged and weak seedlings Less winter wheat grows well in areas with better irrigation conditions.
  (2) Strong cooling in winter, some winter wheat and rapeseed are affected by
From December 11 to 16, most of the autumn sowing areas showed strong cooling weather. Winter wheat in the northwestern part of China and northern North China had entered the wintering period, and the cooling had no obvious effect on wheat. The lowest temperature in the winter wheat area in most of North China and Huanghuai East To -15~-5°C, the winter wheat stops growing and enters the wintering period normally; the lowest temperature in the western and western Huaihe Rivers falls to -7~-2°C, and the Jianghan, Jiangnan, and southwestern regions also fall to -4~0. °C, the growth of some weak winter wheat and rapeseed was affected, but due to the short cooling time and the strong cold tolerance of winter wheat and rapeseed, it did not have obvious adverse effects on crop growth in most areas. In addition, cooling is beneficial to kill the overwintering eggs and reduce the wintering base of pests and diseases.
2. The bottom of the autumn sowing area is sufficient, and the winter wheat and rapeseed are planted smoothly. However, some areas in the north have drought after sowing, and some parts of the southern part of the country have staged overcast and heavy rainfall, which has a certain impact on crop growth
(1) The bottom of the autumn sowing area is sufficient, the winter wheat and rapeseed are planted and seedlings are smooth
Most of the autumn sowing area has a precipitation of 200-500 mm from August to September. The southeastern part of the northwestern region, most of North China, Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan and other places are more than 50 mm more than normal. The abundant precipitation effectively increases the soil. At the end of the day, winter wheat and rapeseed were seeded and emerged smoothly, and the growth was better.
(2) The precipitation in North China, Huanghuai, Jianghuai and other places has been less than since October, and drought has occurred in some areas, affecting the normal growth of winter wheat and rapeseed
Most of the precipitation in North China, Huanghuai and Jianghuai from October to mid-December is less than 50 mm less than normal. However, due to the good early stage, the drought in most areas is limited to the topsoil, and the soil moisture below 10 cm can basically meet the wheat. The growth demand has not caused a large area of ​​dead seedlings and lack of seedlings. The southern part of Shandong and the peninsula, northern Anhui and northern Jiangsu are affected by the lack of precipitation, and the drought is heavier. The winter wheat seedlings are small and weak, the leaves are fine, the secondary roots are less, the tillers are less, and some wheat fields are lacking in seedlings and ridges. Serious fields even appear dry and dead. In addition, due to the lack of precipitation, the local conditions of the Jianghuai, Jianghan and Jiangnan transplanted rapeseed seedlings deviation, live rapeseed out of seedlings.
  (3) Staged overcast and heavy rainfall in some parts of the south, causing excessive soil moisture in farmland, affecting winter wheat, rapeseed sowing schedule and normal growth
From late September to late October, there were obvious periods of cloudy and rainy weather in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and parts of the southwest. The number of rainy days was more than 15 days. The precipitation days in the southwestern part of the south and southwestern regions reached 20 to 30 days, resulting in farmland soil. After being in a state of excessive humidity for a long time, the sowing period of winter wheat and live rapeseed was postponed, the progress was slow, and the growth of transplanted rapeseed was also affected. In the middle and late mid-December, there was a strong precipitation process in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the southeastern part of the southwestern region. The precipitation was 50-100 mm, and the precipitation in the central part of the Yangtze River was over 100 mm, which caused the farmland soil to be too wet, and the growth of winter wheat and rapeseed roots was affected. Is not conducive to the formation of strong seedlings.
Second, winter wheat, rapeseed seedling analysis
1. Winter wheat seedlings are generally better than the same period last year
The results of remote sensing monitoring of wheat growth in the main winter wheat area in the north of December 3 showed that the winter wheat growth in North China and Huanghuai was better than that in the previous year; the growth of winter wheat in the central and southern parts of Shandong and parts of Jianghuai was lower than that of the previous year, and the overall situation of wheat in Anhui and Jiangsu It was worse than the previous year. According to statistics from the agricultural sector, the winter wheat seedlings were generally better than the previous year. Among them, the proportion of the first type of seedlings was 47.1%, an increase of 4.6% over the previous year, and the proportion of the second type of seedlings was 36.6%, a decrease of 2.3% over the previous year; The proportion of seedlings was 14.8%, a decrease of 2.3% over the previous year; the proportion of Wangchang seedlings was 1.5%, an increase of 0.7% over the previous year.
The survey of seedlings in the main producing provinces of winter wheat showed that the wheat seedlings in different regions were uneven. Among them, most of the seedlings in Hebei Province had better seedlings and reached the standard of strong seedlings; the development of winter wheat in Shanxi was basically normal, and the proportion of the first and second types of seedlings was 40%. The three types of seedlings were 20%; the winter wheat seedlings in Shandong were significantly better than the previous year, but some unwatered wheat showed drought symptoms. In addition, due to the high temperature, local wheat seedlings appeared prosperous; Henan wheat seedlings approached In the same period of the same year, the proportion of the first type of seedlings was 51.4%, that of the second type of seedlings was 23.8%, that of the third type of seedlings was 17.0%, which was higher than that of the previous year, and the other was 7.8% of the Wangchang seedlings, the proportion was higher than that of the previous year; The proportion of winter wheat type seedlings was significantly reduced due to less rain and drought. The area of ​​wheat lacking seedlings and ridges was 2.881 million mu, and the seedlings were worse than the previous year. Due to the higher proportion of late sowing in Jiangsu, combined with the effects of drought, the overall situation of seedlings was worse than that of the previous year. The proportion of seedlings was 32%, an increase of 0.5% over the previous year; the second type of seedlings was 39%, 4.1% less than the previous year, and the third type of seedlings was 25%, an increase of 6.6% over the previous year.
2, rapeseed seedlings are basically normal
According to the survey, the growth of rapeseed is basically normal, but due to the lack of precipitation in the previous period, the rapeseed seedlings in some areas are biased. Among them, the rapeseed seedlings in Jiangsu are worse than the previous year. The average density of transplanted rapeseed is 7065 per mu, which is 80 less than the previous year. The live rapeseed was affected by drought and the average seedling density was 14.79 million per mu, which was 1,341 plants less than the previous year. The seedlings of Hubei rapeseed were complicated, the live rapeseed was uneven, the seedlings were weak, and some of the transplanted rapeseed was affected by drought. Water affects high seedlings and poor quality of transplanting, and part of it grows too high due to high temperature.
Third, this winter and spring weather and climate trends for winter wheat, oilseed rape may affect
1. The temperature in winter is slightly lower than that in normal years. Winter wheat and rapeseed may suffer from freezing damage in some areas; precipitation in North China, Huanghuai and other places is less, which is not conducive to winter wheat safety
It is estimated that in the winter of 2010/2011 (December 2010 to February 2011), the general trend of national temperature is slightly lower than that of normal years, and the range of cold and warm changes is large. There may be regional low temperature and staged strong cooling process. Temperatures in northern Xinjiang, most of Gansu, northern Hebei, southern Henan, western Anhui, Hubei, most of Jiangxi, eastern Sichuan, Chongqing, and most of Guizhou are lower than normal, which may cause winter wheat and rapeseed to suffer from freezing damage in some areas. The temperature in the remaining agricultural areas is slightly higher, which is conducive to winter wheat and rapeseed safely wintering.
The mid-eastern part of the northwestern region, the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the central part of the southwestern region have more precipitation in winter, which is conducive to soil growth and water conservancy facilities, which can provide good water conditions for agricultural production this winter and spring. Winter precipitation in North China, Huanghuai and other places is less than normal, and winter drought may occur, which has a slight impact on winter winter wheat safety.
2. The temperature in most areas next spring is higher than normal, which is conducive to the growth and development of winter wheat and rapeseed; however, spring drought may occur in some areas, which will affect the yield of winter wheat and rapeseed
In the spring of next year (March to May 2011), the temperature in most areas is close to normal or slightly higher, which is conducive to the growth and development of winter wheat and rapeseed. However, the high temperature may cause the winter wheat in the north to return to green and the soil thawing time is advanced. The peak demand period of the district will also be earlier. In addition, the high temperature in spring is likely to cause the occurrence and spread of winter wheat and rapeseed pests and diseases, which will be unfavorable for yield formation.
Spring precipitation in northern Xinjiang, eastern North China, eastern Huanghuai, and southwestern China is more than normal in the same period of the year, which is conducive to the growth and yield formation of winter wheat and rapeseed; precipitation in the eastern part of the northwest, western part of North China, western part of Huanghuai and Jiangnan Poorly occurring, spring drought may occur, and the formation of winter wheat and rapeseed in areas with poor irrigation conditions will be affected.
Fourth, agricultural production recommendations
At present, most of the winter wheat in the north has entered the wintering period. The winter wheat and rapeseed in the south are in a slow growth stage. All localities should strengthen the field management, lay a good foundation for agricultural production next year, and strive to increase the yield of winter wheat and rapeseed. Recommendation:
1. The winter wheat area in the north should do a good job in drought and cold prevention, and cultivate strong seedlings to survive the winter. The wheat fields that have not formed stable snow cover in the north should be repressed, fertilized and covered to ensure the winter and wheat are safely wintered. The western part of Huanghuai and the northern part of the Jianghuai River should be timely watered while avoiding the cold air process. Repressing and applying organic fertilizer to protect the temperature and prevent the freezing and drought disasters from damaging the growth of winter wheat.
2. The southern crop production areas should strengthen field management and promote the steady growth of crops. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the southwestern region, winter wheat and rapeseed should be cultivated in time to enhance the temperature and protect the mites, and to prevent the effects of freezing damage. According to the seedlings, the fertilization should be applied in a timely manner to strive for balanced development and cultivation of strong seedlings. At the same time, it is necessary to actively clear the ditch To ensure smooth drainage and prevent wet spots.
3. Strengthen the monitoring and prevention of pests and diseases. All producing areas should actively strengthen the monitoring and control of winter and spring winter wheat and rapeseed pests.
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