International urea outlook dimmed

The international urea market has recently demonstrated a bear market. It is generally felt that prices will fall further globally. Unfavorable weather conditions have delayed purchases in many countries, and the rest of the buyers are reluctant to give up because of a premonition that prices are weak. As Easter approaches, the market is more uncertain, and it is expected that buyers in Latin America will not be able to act until April. Pakistan’s recent announcement of a new tender, which ended in late April, is not expected to significantly reduce the sales pressure of Arab Gulf producers this month.

Despite bearish, urea prices have barely fallen last week. The FOB price reached in Yuri Day was US$380 (t price, the same below), the Turkish market fell below US$380, and Yurii’s trading in April ran offshore. The price is between 369 and 373 USD. Last weekend, 50,000 tons of Egypt’s large grain urea was sold for FOB price of US$420. After that, the selling price did not change, but traders did not want to purchase April’s supply at this price. There was a ship in the Middle East that sold to the United States at a price close to the FOB price of US$405. The CIF for small granular urea in the Brazilian market is currently $409, which is equivalent to less than $370 for the Baltic FOB. As everyone agrees that urea will exceed supply in April-June, this will push the market down, but it is still difficult to determine. It is expected that traders must make up the bank at some time in April, and once the prices have stabilized, Latin American buyers will collectively return to the market. The current concentration of deals in Yuzhninet has increased the possibility of stabilizing prices.