2013 oil prices are too low for domestic refined oil or oversupply

In 2012, international oil prices showed an “M” trend under the influence of the European debt crisis, US elections, and geopolitics.

Looking into the 2013 international oil prices, experts believe that the global economy will slowly recover next year, and the growth of oil demand will be relatively slow. The basic support for the international crude oil market is relatively limited. However, the loose monetary policies of major economies such as Europe and the United States and other uncertainties in the Middle East geopolitical support the formation of international oil prices. It is expected that the international oil price will remain high and the annual average price will be higher than 2012.

In 2013, the demand for refined oil products in the domestic market is expected to improve gradually, and the growth rate of gasoline and kerosene consumption will continue to grow at a high level. However, the growth rate of diesel consumption may slow down along with the economic slowdown and industrial restructuring. Supply of gasoline and diesel market resources exceeds demand, but refined oil prices may remain high due to the impact of the international market.

2012 international oil prices are now "M" trend 2012 international oil prices like an English letter "M", the quarter has changed significantly.

The European Union issued an embargo on Iranian oil at the beginning of the year. The geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continued to be interpreted. In the first quarter, international oil prices rose month by month. In March, the monthly average price of WTI oil reached US$106.23 per barrel, and the average monthly price of Brent oil reached the average price per barrel. 124.54 US dollars, both set the highest point of the year.

Entering the second quarter, especially since May, the OPEC countries have expressed their position to guarantee the supply of crude oil. The debt problems of Greece, Spain, Italy and other countries have once again become prominent, making the European debt crisis a hot spot for the market. Crude oil prices have fallen sharply. In the third quarter of the second quarter, the monthly average price of crude oil fell month by month. The average monthly price of WTI crude oil fell to 82.39 U.S. dollars in June, and the average monthly price of Brent crude dropped to 95.93 U.S. dollars, which was the lowest point in the year. Compared with the average price in March, it decreased by 22.4% and twenty three%.

With the entry into force of the European Union’s embargo on Iran on July 1st, the panic sentiment in the Middle East by the geopolitical crisis has again been rendered. The financial market is full of expectation for the United States to issue QE3, the third round of quantitative easing policy, and the speculative enthusiasm for renewing oil prices will rise again. As of September 18th week, WTI** net positions in speculative positions reached 267,151 contracts, an increase of 137% from 112,833 hands in the week of June 26.

In the third quarter, although the fundamentals of the crude oil market did not show any significant improvement, international oil prices rose month by month driven by speculative buzz. By September, the average monthly price of WTI crude oil reached 94.56 US dollars per barrel, and the monthly average of Brent crude oil was The price reached US$113.03, which rose by 14.8% and 17.8% respectively in three months.

In mid-September, the US QE3 policy was formally settled, but the market has long overdraw this advantage. The debt crisis in Europe remains unresolved. Market fears caused by the US election and the financial cliff predicament have caused speculation to begin to lighten up and international oil prices have oscillated. As of the week of November 27th, WTI**'s net position in speculative positions fell to 137,254, which was a 48.6% decrease from the year-on-year high in September.

Affected by this, the monthly average price of crude oil in October and November dropped in succession. In November, the average monthly price of WTI crude oil dropped to 86.74 US dollars per barrel, and the average monthly price of Brent crude oil dropped to 109.53 US dollars per barrel. After entering December, international oil prices began to gradually stabilize. In mid-December, the United States introduced a new round of quantitative easing policies again. However, the crude oil market remained unmoved and there was no significant rebound in the maintenance of the downturn.

As of December 24, the average monthly price of WTI crude oil was 87.53 US dollars per barrel, and the average monthly price of Brent crude oil was 108.77 US dollars per barrel.

Fundamental difficulties are hardly improved in 2013. Currency and geopolitical support for oil prices From the perspective of several key factors affecting international oil prices, the global economy slowly recovered in 2013, and the growth of oil demand was also relatively slow. The basic support for the international crude oil market is relatively limited. . However, the loose monetary policies of major economies such as Europe and the United States and other uncertainties in the Middle East geopolitical support the formation of international oil prices.

From a fundamental perspective, the fiscal cliff may have a negative impact on the U.S. economy, coupled with the European debt crisis has still not found a clear way out. In 2013, the global economy is expected to experience mild growth due to multiple uncertainties. The global oil demand growth will also be relatively slow.

The International Energy Agency’s oil market report released in mid-December predicted that the global economy is expected to increase by 3.3% and 3.6% respectively in the next two years. In 2012, the average daily global petroleum demand will reach 89.7 million barrels. In 2013, the average daily global petroleum demand will reach 90.5 million barrels. From a global perspective, oil demand in China, India, Russia, and Brazil is expected to continue to grow, while oil demand in most developed economies will remain stable or slightly lower, with Japan experiencing a large drop, which is expected to reach 3.6%.

At the supply level, OPEC’s recent meeting decided to maintain the current 30 million barrels per day of crude oil production. International crude oil production capacity is expected to continue to grow in 2013, and its crude oil growth is mainly from non-OPEC oil-producing countries.

Liu Yaqin, senior analyst at China International Capital Corporation, believes that there are still many risks in the economy in 2013, the debt crisis in Europe has not been lifted, the United States is troubled by the fiscal cliff, and global oil demand growth is slow. On the other hand, OPEC’s oil production has remained high, and the increase in production of shale oil and shale gas in the United States has increased the production of non-OPEC oil-producing countries. There is no pressure on oil supply.

From the monetary point of view, in 2012, the United States, Japan, the European Union and other economies continued to implement loose monetary policies, further increase the market liquidity, making a large number of funds into markets such as commodities, and increase speculation and monetary speculation.

Han Fuling, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics, said that the US fiscal policy has almost lost space. Increasing the export value through the depreciation of the US dollar is the most effective means to promote the U.S. economic recovery. The US debt pressure is increasing day by day and there is an urgent need to ease the debt burden through the depreciation of the U.S. dollar.

"Multiple rounds of quantitative easing will keep the US dollar index weak." Han Fuling said that the US dollar is the main settlement currency in the oil market, accounting for about 80% of the total settlement volume. According to OPEC's calculation, every dollar depreciated by 1%, and the price of oil per barrel rose by 4 US dollars.

From the perspective of geopolitical factors, the turbulent situation in the Middle East and North Africa not only directly affects the oil supply, but also can lead to oil transportation passages and become the most unstable factor affecting oil price fluctuations. Wang Xudong, an expert from the Beijing Institute of Petroleum Management Cadet, frankly stated that the fundamental reason for the high international oil prices today is not the lack of supply, but the politico-military economic conflict that undermines the balance between supply and demand has not been completely eliminated. Different judgments on conflict trends have induced speculation, resulting in oil price distortions and turmoil.

Regarding the outlook for the international oil price trend next year, Liu Yaqin believes that in 2013, international oil prices may maintain a pattern of substantial shocks, accompanied by various risks. However, it is not expected that the downside will be particularly large. The marginal cost of U.S. shale oil is around 90 U.S. dollars per barrel. It is expected that the bottom price of WTI oil may be around 90 U.S. dollars per barrel. If the price is below this level for a long time, the U.S. shale oil production process may slow down, and then it will play a part in the market. support.

Song Lei, a senior analyst at China International Petroleum and Chemicals Co., Ltd., believes that US crude oil imports are expected to keep declining, and the expected mid- to long-term international oil prices will fall. The oil price of US$90 a barrel is relatively reasonable for oil producing countries and companies. The international oil price is still above 100 US dollars. This includes a geopolitical premium factor.

Yuan Jiantuan, a senior engineer at the Institute of Economics and Technology of Sinopec, believes that the overall international oil price level in 2013 was flat or slightly higher than that of 2012, and the average annual price of Brent oil was around 108-115 dollars per barrel. If the world economy experiences a recession, it is expected that the average annual price of Brent oil may fall to around $100 a barrel. If the geopolitical situation deteriorates, it is expected that the average annual price of Brent oil may rise to around $120 a barrel.

Xin Jian, special economic analyst of Xinhua News, and Zhong Jian, vice president of CBI, are relatively optimistic about the trend of international oil prices next year. Zhong Jian believes that the ups and downs of international oil prices in 2012 are closely related to the operation of speculation. Under the influence of loose monetary policy, the global market is well-funded, and the enthusiasm of speculative oil prices is still high. In 2013, international oil prices will still be in the rising channel, and the highest monthly average price of WTI is expected to increase by 20 US dollars from this year to around 126 dollars per barrel.

In 2013, the abundant domestic refined oil resource prices are expected to remain high as the world’s second largest oil consumer. The performance of the Chinese economy affects the performance of the international crude oil market. As a big crude oil importing country with foreign dependence on crude oil of nearly 60%, the fluctuation of international oil prices also directly affects all aspects of China's social production and life.

Affected by the slowdown in domestic economic growth, the growth rate of China's refined oil consumption will also slow down in 2012. Among them, the growth in the demand for diesel related to the production of enterprises will decline significantly, and the demand for gasoline will remain relatively high.

According to data released by the National Development and Reform Commission, the apparent consumption of refined oil in China in the first 11 months of 2012 was 229.45 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and the growth rate was down 1.7 percentage points from the same period of last year.

Since entering the third quarter, the domestic economy has shown signs of stabilization and recovery, which is expected to drive the recovery of oil demand. From the perspective of several leading indicators that reflect the economy, China's PMI data in the two months of October and November 2012 were consistently above the line; the amount of electricity used by the entire society as an economic barometer also continued to rise for two months; scale The above industrial added value rose for three consecutive months. The improvement of macroeconomic data shows a mild upward trend in the domestic economy.

Sun Weishan, deputy secretary-general of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, stated that in 2013, the country’s macroeconomic growth has accelerated, and demand for refined oil will also increase. It is estimated that the apparent domestic crude oil consumption will be about 502 million tons in 2013, up 5.3. %; The apparent consumption of refined oil is about 292 million tons, with a growth rate of around 6%. In general, however, the market will maintain a slightly larger supply than demand.

From the perspective of consumption structure, China’s apparent gasoline consumption increased by 7.8% year-on-year in the first 11 months of this year, and its growth rate increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year; apparent consumption of diesel fuel increased by 0.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell 3.5% year-on-year. .

Yuan Jiantuan believes that in 2013 China's refined oil consumption structure will continue to maintain the structure of gasoline and kerosene faster than diesel. It is estimated that in 2013 China's auto sales will be 21 million, an increase of about 8% year-on-year, and by the end of 2013, the number of vehicles will reach 127 million, an increase of about 15%. The demand for gasoline for vehicles is expected to increase by 11%-12% year-on-year. In addition, the acceleration of urbanization will also promote the growth of air passenger transport and cargo transportation. It is expected that China’s aviation kerosene demand will increase by 10.7% year-on-year in 2013. Although the economic environment is expected to pick up, due to economic restructuring, the growth rate of diesel consumption in 2013 may improve slightly, but the growth rate is not expected to be significant.

Zhong Jian also believes that the growth rate of domestic gasoline consumption in 2013 is expected to remain at about 7%-8%, but the growth rate of diesel consumption remains weak, and is expected to be around 1%-2%.

On the supply side, Yuan Jiantuan believes that in 2013 the national new oil refining capacity will be about 41 million tons, and the processing volume of PetroChina and Sinopec will increase by 6% and 7%, respectively. It is estimated that in 2013, the country’s refined oil production will be between 299,000 and 301 million tons. Between 2.92 and 2.95 billion tons, resources are in a loose state.

In terms of price, affected by international oil prices, the highest retail price of gasoline and diesel in China experienced a “four-up, four-down” adjustment for eight times this year. Although the number of rises and falls has hit a draw, the overall retail price of gasoline and diesel was higher than last year. high. Gasoline prices rose by 560 yuan per ton, and diesel prices rose by 590 yuan per ton.

Experts believe that the reform of the refined oil pricing mechanism that is expected may be further advanced in 2013. This means that the linkage between domestic oil prices and the international market will be even closer.

Deng Yusong, deputy director of the Institute of Market Economy at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that China's refined oil pricing mechanism should not only meet international prices, but also achieve relatively stable domestic oil prices. The current pricing mechanism has lagging adjustments, and the path for further reforms is to shorten the price adjustment cycle and speed up price adjustments.

Zhong Jian believes that the international oil price is expected to remain high in 2013, domestic refined oil prices may remain high, and the risk of imported inflation still needs to be vigilant.